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On Thursday, H.C. Wainwright adjusted its outlook on Alumis Inc (NASDAQ:ALMS) by reducing the 12-month price target to $15 from the previous $19, while continuing to endorse the stock with a Buy rating. Currently trading at $4.37, nearly 68% below its 52-week high of $13.53, the stock has experienced significant pressure in recent months. The revision follows Alumis’ fourth-quarter financial report for the year 2024, which displayed a larger than anticipated net loss. According to InvestingPro, the stock’s RSI suggests oversold conditions.
Alumis disclosed a net loss of $1.73 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts’ predictions of a $1.39 per share loss. The research and development (R&D) expenses, along with general and administrative (G&A) costs, were reported at $87.2 million and $11.4 million, respectively. These figures exceeded the forecasted amounts of $64.8 million for R&D and $10.6 million for G&A.
In light of the recent financial outcomes, H.C. Wainwright has revised its projections for Alumis’ net loss in 2025 to $4.26 per share, an increase from the prior estimate of $3.31 per share. Despite this adjustment, the firm’s analysts have reiterated their confidence in Alumis with a continued Buy rating.
The company’s management has indicated that Alumis’ pro forma cash position, which stands at $737 million, is expected to sustain the company’s operations into the year 2027. This financial cushion is seen as a significant factor in supporting Alumis through its upcoming development phases. The company maintains a healthy current ratio of 6.01, with liquid assets well exceeding short-term obligations. Get access to more detailed financial metrics and 12 additional ProTips with InvestingPro.
H.C. Wainwright’s reduction in the price target to $15 reflects a recalibration of expectations based on the increased operating expenses. The firm’s analysts have updated their financial models to account for the higher spending pattern observed in the company’s recent reports. Despite the downward adjustment in the price target, the firm maintains its positive stance on Alumis’ stock.
In other recent news, Alumis Inc. has presented promising results from its Phase 2 trial for ESK-001, a treatment for psoriasis, at the American Academy of Dermatology annual meeting. The data showed significant improvement in PASI-100 rates, and H.C. Wainwright & Co. maintained its Buy rating with a $19 price target, citing the drug’s superior performance compared to existing treatments. Alumis is also progressing with its Phase 3 trials for ESK-001, expected to report results in early 2026, and is developing a once-daily formulation to replace the current twice-daily version. Additionally, Alumis plans to present new data on its A-005 therapy for multiple sclerosis, which has shown potential in Phase 1 trials and is set to enter Phase 2 later in 2025. The company has also introduced a new Severance and Change in Control Plan, offering financial stability to employees in case of certain terminations. In a related development, Alumis is involved in a merger with ACELYRIN, Inc., set to finalize in the second quarter of 2025, amid ACELYRIN receiving a buyout proposal from Concentra Biosciences. ACELYRIN’s board is committed to its merger with Alumis, but the unsolicited proposal adds a new dimension to the situation.
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