AMD stock outlook: Bernstein reiterates Market Perform rating on AMD

Published 12/11/2025, 11:52
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Investing.com - Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated a Market Perform rating and $200.00 price target on AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) following the company’s investor day presentation. The price target represents a significant discount to AMD’s current trading price of $237.52, with InvestingPro data suggesting the stock is currently overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.

The firm noted that AMD’s presentation met "reasonably high expectations," with management setting what Bernstein described as "somewhat aggressive/aspirational" 3-5 year targets. These targets include total revenue growth of 35%+ and earnings per share of $20+ before the end of the decade. For context, AMD has achieved a 31% revenue CAGR over the past five years, while analysts forecast EPS of just $3.98 for the current fiscal year.

AMD outlined its vision for the AI market, projecting a total addressable market of approximately $1 trillion for AI silicon (including GPU, CPU, and networking) by 2030. The company expects its AI GPU business to grow at an 80% compound annual growth rate, reaching double-digit market share and suggesting more than $100 billion in targeted AI GPU sales by 2030. With a current market capitalization of $386.69 billion, investors are pricing in substantial growth expectations, reflected in AMD’s elevated P/E ratio of 127.75.

Bernstein highlighted that AMD’s long-term gross margin outlook of 55-58% amid the forecasted GPU expansion was "probably better than expected," suggesting the company anticipates improved AI margins over time. The firm noted that AMD did not announce new customer partnerships beyond previously disclosed relationships with OpenAI, Oracle, Meta, and the US Government.

For its non-GPU business, AMD targets achieving more than 50% server CPU revenue share and over 40% client share, continuing its current share trajectory in a market the company believes will inflect upward.

In other recent news, AMD has been the focus of several analyst updates following its 2025 Financial Analyst Day Event. Melius Research raised its price target for AMD to $380, citing a positive surprise in the company’s margin guidance and expectations for over 35% revenue growth in the coming years. BofA Securities maintained its price target at $300, highlighting AMD’s expanded vision for the artificial intelligence market, projecting a total AI silicon total addressable market exceeding $1 trillion by 2030. Evercore ISI also adjusted its price target to $283 from $270, driven by increased confidence in AMD’s MI450 product ramps and market share gains. Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating with a $300 price target, emphasizing AMD’s positive outlook across all business segments. These developments reflect a strong focus on AI growth and market expansion. Each of these firms maintains a Buy rating on AMD, underscoring a generally optimistic view among analysts.

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