BASF stock rating cut to Hold despite price target hike at Berenberg

Published 18/02/2025, 09:22
BASF stock rating cut to Hold despite price target hike at Berenberg

On Tuesday, Berenberg analysts revised their stance on BASF SE (BAS:GR) (OTC: OTC:BASFY), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold, while slightly raising the price target from EUR 50.00 to EUR 52.00. The adjustment comes as BASF's shares have experienced a significant rally, climbing approximately 22% from their early January lows, with InvestingPro data showing a current market capitalization of $46.6 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears fairly valued at current levels.

Sebastian Bray, the analyst from Berenberg, provided insight into the rationale behind the downgrade. Despite maintaining a Buy rating after last year's unfounded optimism for a chemical sector recovery, Bray pointed out several factors that had previously supported their positive outlook. These included the potential for BASF to divest business units such as Coatings at higher multiples than the group, the company's prudent decision to adjust its dividend policy (though InvestingPro data shows BASF has maintained dividend payments for 33 consecutive years, with a current yield of 4.85%), and the anticipation of lower natural gas prices in Europe, which could be aided by a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Moreover, Bray noted that recent political developments in Germany and additional economic stimulus measures in China had been beneficial for BASF. The German political landscape has shown signs of providing support to the sector, and China's stimulus efforts are expected to have a positive impact on the company's performance. InvestingPro Tips indicate that BASF's net income is expected to grow this year, with analysts predicting continued profitability. Subscribers can access 10 additional exclusive ProTips on BASF's outlook and performance metrics.

Despite these favorable elements, the substantial share price increase has led Berenberg to adopt a more conservative rating. The new Hold status reflects a tempered outlook, suggesting that the stock may now be fairly valued after the recent surge in price.

Investors and market watchers will likely monitor BASF's stock performance closely in the coming months, as the company navigates the evolving economic and political environment, along with the potential strategic moves such as divestitures that could influence its valuation further.

In other recent news, Berenberg continues to hold a favorable view on BASF, maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of EUR50.00. Despite potential hurdles such as high gas costs in Europe and increased tariffs, Berenberg's analyst suggests that BASF's short-term earnings prospects appear more optimistic than initially projected. Factors contributing to this positive outlook include the effects of Chinese stimulus measures announced in 2024 and improved plant utilization across Europe.

Most upstream chemical spreads, except Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI), experienced a beneficial fourth quarter, potentially linked to China's economic measures and a rebound in European manufacturing operations. Furthermore, the analyst anticipates that BASF's recent decision to more directly link employee compensation to individual segment performance could significantly impact the company's performance.

Additionally, BASF is predicted to engage in strategic portfolio management throughout 2025, with potential divestment of parts of the Coatings unit. The analyst also noted BASF's investment in Harbour Energy, with the lock-up period for its 39.6% stake due to expire in the first half of 2025, which may lead to further strategic actions. These are the recent developments in the company's operations.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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