Benchmark maintains Trip.com Buy rating, $80 price target

Published 25/02/2025, 16:58
Benchmark maintains Trip.com Buy rating, $80 price target

On Tuesday, Benchmark analysts reiterated their Buy rating and $80.00 price target for Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) shares. The travel service provider’s fourth-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 23% year-over-year, buoyed by robust domestic travel demand and a 70% surge in performance from its namesake website, trip.com. The company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 81.6% and boasts a "GREAT" financial health score according to InvestingPro analysis. Despite the positive revenue trends, the company’s operating profit margin (OPM) contracted significantly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The contraction was attributed to heightened investments in international market expansion efforts.

In their commentary, Benchmark analysts highlighted the company’s conservative guidance for the fiscal year 2025. Trip.com’s management anticipates mid-teen year-over-year revenue growth, aligning with consensus estimates. However, they also project a 2-3% year-over-year margin contraction, contrary to consensus expectations which forecasted an approximate 50 basis point expansion. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s current valuation appears attractive relative to its growth prospects, with a PEG ratio of just 0.37. The anticipated margin decline is linked to increased spending on user acquisition and the establishment of local teams, particularly as Trip.com seeks to expand its market share in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region.

Trip.com’s strategic focus is on deepening its market penetration to secure a larger share, especially within the APAC markets. The company’s investment in international growth, including efforts to attract new users and build local presence, is a key part of this strategy. Despite the short-term impact on operating margins, Trip.com’s management appears committed to this course of action to establish a stronger foothold overseas.

The company’s performance and future outlook, as outlined by Benchmark analysts, reflect Trip.com’s resilience in the face of slower seasonal travel patterns and its aggressive push for a more significant presence in international markets. The travel service provider’s efforts to capitalize on domestic demand while simultaneously branching out globally form the core of its current business strategy.

In other recent news, Trip.com Group Limited has reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, with a 23% year-over-year increase, driven by domestic market share expansion and a significant rise in international bookings. Despite this strong performance, TD Cowen revised its price target for Trip.com to $67, maintaining a Buy rating, while Barclays (LON:BARC) and Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities retained their Overweight and Outperform ratings, respectively, with price targets of $84 and $78. Barclays highlighted Trip.com’s outbound travel growth, which has surpassed pre-Covid levels by 20%, and its international segment’s surge in bookings. Mizuho noted that Trip.com’s operating income exceeded forecasts by 4% due to strong operational leverage, even as gross margins declined.

Bernstein adjusted its price target to $80 from $85, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing softer travel data that led to a downward revision of revenue and earnings per share estimates. Despite this, Bernstein remains optimistic about Trip.com’s long-term growth potential, particularly in domestic and international travel. Benchmark also reaffirmed its Buy rating with a price target of $80, citing Trip.com’s unique market position and strong earnings predictability. The company has announced a $400 million share buyback program for 2025 and declared its first-ever $200 million dividend, reflecting confidence in its financial strategy amid evolving market dynamics.

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