BioCryst stock holds Market Outperform amid new targets

On Tuesday, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), currently trading at $8.29, maintained its Market Outperform rating and a steady price target of $18.00, as reiterated by analysts at Citizens JMP. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $8 to $30, with the company showing strong revenue growth of 36% over the last twelve months. The firm expressed a positive outlook on the stock, citing its current valuation at approximately 3.5 times the midpoint of its newly updated 2025 revenue guidance, which ranges between $540 million and $560 million. Citizens JMP’s updated estimate for BioCryst’s 2025 revenue stands at $556 million, a slight increase from their previous projection of $547 million and aligning with the current consensus. With a market capitalization of $1.71 billion and a healthy gross profit margin of 58.76%, the company demonstrates solid operational efficiency despite recent market volatility.

The analysts’ confidence in BioCryst is further bolstered by their expectation that the company will reach its $1 billion peak worldwide sales goal for Orladeyo, its treatment for hereditary angioedema, with an anticipated $800 million of that figure coming from the U.S. market alone. A contributing factor to this optimism is the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on Orladeyo patients who are on Medicare. The act is anticipated to make copays more affordable for 20% of these patients, which could lead to increased patient retention on the medication.

The Inflation Reduction Act’s benefits for Medicare patients were realized earlier than expected, which is seen as a positive development for the company. This legislative change is intended to reduce out-of-pocket costs for patients, which can be a significant factor in medication adherence and long-term treatment success.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals focuses on developing and commercializing novel, oral, small-molecule medicines for rare diseases. Orladeyo, one of their key products, is designed to prevent attacks in patients with hereditary angioedema, a rare and potentially life-threatening condition.

The company’s stock performance and future revenue prospects are being closely watched by investors, especially with the updated revenue guidance and the positive effects of the Inflation Reduction Act on the affordability of their flagship drug, Orladeyo. The reaffirmed rating and price target reflect analysts’ belief in the company’s potential to achieve its financial and commercial objectives. While the stock has experienced a recent 11.43% decline over the past week, InvestingPro analysis reveals additional insights and metrics that could help investors make more informed decisions. Get access to the comprehensive Pro Research Report and 6 more exclusive ProTips for BCRX through an InvestingPro subscription.

In other recent news, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company missed earnings per share (EPS) expectations, reporting a loss of $0.13 per share, which was $0.06 worse than analysts had anticipated. However, BioCryst exceeded revenue forecasts, with quarterly revenue reaching $131.53 million, surpassing the expected $127.17 million and marking a significant 40.8% year-over-year increase. The company’s Orladeyo treatment contributed notably to this growth, with its Q4 revenue increasing by 36.6% year-over-year to $124.2 million.

BioCryst has raised its 2025 revenue guidance for Orladeyo, expecting global net revenue to be between $535 million and $550 million, up from previous estimates. Total (EPA:TTEF) revenue for 2025, including contributions from RAPIVAB, is projected to be between $560 million and $575 million. This positive outlook is partly attributed to the Inflation Reduction Act, which has improved Medicare patients’ ability to afford therapy, and strong patient demand at the start of the year. Despite the EPS miss, Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating on BioCryst with a $23 price target, while JPMorgan also kept an Overweight rating with a $10 target, citing the company’s robust commercial potential and promising clinical developments.

BioCryst’s strategic investments in its pipeline, including BCX1777 for Netherton syndrome and avoralstat for diabetic macular edema, are noted as key elements for future growth. The company achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of $62.9 million for the full year 2024, indicating a positive shift from a previous loss. Overall, these developments highlight BioCryst’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and expand its product offerings.

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