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On Monday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA:CN) (OTC: OTC:NTIOF) shares by reducing the price target to Cdn$135.00 from the previous Cdn$143.00. Despite the reduction, the firm maintained an Outperform rating on the bank’s stock. According to InvestingPro analysis, the bank, currently valued at $31.79B, appears undervalued based on its Fair Value estimate. The revised target follows the company’s first-quarter financial results for 2025, which were a mixed display of strength in some areas and weaker performance in others.
National Bank of Canada’s cash earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter stood at $2.93, surpassing both BMO Capital’s and the consensus estimates, which were $2.60 and $2.65, respectively. The outperformance was largely attributed to a record trading revenue within the Financial Markets division, as well as robust results from U.S. Specialty Finance & International, primarily at ABA Bank. However, the bank’s Personal & Commercial (P&C) Banking division did not meet expectations, despite showing better pre-tax pre-provision (PTPP) profits and volume growth, due to higher provisions for credit losses (PCLs) on both retail and commercial fronts.
The total bank PCL ratio was reported at 41 basis points, which included 9 basis points of performing reserves. This figure was higher than BMO Capital’s forecast of 28 basis points. Nonetheless, National Bank of Canada demonstrated a strong return on equity (ROE) of 17.6% and maintained a robust Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 13.6%. InvestingPro data reveals the bank maintains an overall ’Fair’ financial health score, with revenue growth of 14.27% in the last twelve months. For deeper insights into National Bank of Canada’s financial metrics and future outlook, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
The bank also confirmed that it is on track with the cost and funding synergies, as well as the timelines associated with the recent acquisition of Canadian Western Bank (TSX:CWB). The acquisition is expected to contribute to the bank’s future financial performance. The maintenance of the Outperform rating by BMO Capital indicates a belief in the bank’s strong fundamentals and potential for growth despite the near-term challenges reflected in the lowered price target. The bank trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 11.95, suggesting potential value for long-term investors.
In other recent news, National Bank of Canada has been the subject of notable analyst attention. BofA Securities initiated coverage on the bank, assigning a Buy rating and setting a price target of Cdn$150.00. The firm highlighted the bank’s potential for growth and market share expansion, particularly outside Quebec, noting its smaller size as an advantage in the competitive Canadian banking sector. Additionally, BofA Securities projects a 15.7% return on equity for the bank, supported by efficient management, and sees this as a driver for potential outperformance.
In contrast, RBC Capital Markets maintained a Sector Perform rating on National Bank of Canada with a price target of Cdn$134.00. RBC updated its earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to an earlier than expected completion of the Canadian Western Bank acquisition, now set for February 2025. The acquisition is viewed as a positive step for growth outside Quebec, although it did not lead to a change in the stock’s valuation according to RBC. The bank is also expected to achieve a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.5% by the second quarter of 2025, aligning with its guidance. These developments underscore the bank’s strategic positioning and financial outlook as assessed by analysts.
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