Boot Barn stock maintained at Hold rating by Craig-Hallum, expects multiple compression

Published 13/01/2025, 15:28
Boot Barn stock maintained at Hold rating by Craig-Hallum, expects multiple compression

On Monday, Craig-Hallum adjusted its price target for Boot Barn (NYSE:BOOT) Holdings Inc (NYSE: BOOT), a leading lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories and maintained a Hold rating on the stock.

The company reported significant same-store sales (SSS) growth exceeding 400 basis points and solid profitability, with earnings surpassing expectations. Furthermore, Boot Barn experienced substantial unit growth with mid-teen increases in the third quarter and is on track to achieve a record number of store openings in fiscal year 2025.

Despite these positive developments, Craig-Hallum noted that Boot Barn is currently facing relatively easy year-over-year comparisons, as SSS were nearly 10% lower a year ago. However, the two-year stack SSS showed a slight deceleration from the second quarter.

The firm increased the price target to $175 from the previous $160. It anticipates that the comparisons will become much more challenging as the company enters fiscal year 2026 in April, which could lead to a deceleration in comp trends throughout calendar year 2025 and potentially cause some multiple compression later in the year.

The firm recognizes Boot Barn as a leading retail growth story that warrants a premium multiple. However, it also points out that the stock has nearly recovered from the decline following the second quarter update in October and is currently trading at the higher end of its historical forward P/E multiple range. Further stock price increases are expected to be contingent upon significant earnings growth.

Craig-Hallum also highlighted the potential impact of the recent catastrophic wildfires in California, where Boot Barn operates approximately 20% of its stores. The firm suggests that the impact on January sales trends remains uncertain but could serve as a catalyst during the rebuilding phase. Despite the positive performance and growth prospects, Craig-Hallum maintains its Hold rating while adjusting the price target upwards.

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