On Monday, JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss increased the price target on Boot Barn (NYSE:BOOT) Holdings Inc (NYSE: BOOT) shares to $200 from the previous target of $188, while reiterating an Overweight rating on the stock. Currently trading at $156.14, Boot Barn has seen InvestingPro data show 7 analysts revising their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. The adjustment comes in the wake of a store tour with the company's interim CEO and other executives, as well as a holiday preannouncement that surpassed consensus estimates and prompted an earnings per share (EPS) raise.
Boss's commentary highlighted the positive outcomes of the store visit with Boot Barn's leadership, including Interim CEO Greg Hazen and CFO Greg Watkins, as well as VP of Investor Relations & Financial Planning Mark Dedovesh and Director of Investor Relations & Finance Megan Coetzee. The robust holiday performance led to an upward revision of the EPS estimates, now set at $2.43 for the third quarter, exceeding the Street's expectation of $2.05, and $1.28 for the fourth quarter, which is also above the consensus of $1.24.
The analyst's optimistic outlook extends into the future, with JPMorgan raising its forecast for Boot Barn's fiscal year 2026 EPS to $6.84, which is higher than the Street's projection of $6.61. The revised estimates reflect a conservative assumption of 3.5% same-store sales growth, a 15% increase in new units, a 15 basis points expansion in gross margin, and a 15 basis points of SG&A leverage, based on a 2.0% comp fixed cost leverage hurdle. These factors are expected to contribute to an operating margin of 13.0%, surpassing the Street's expectation of 12.8%.
The new price target of $200 is based on approximately 26 times the calendar year 2026 EPS, which aligns with 1.5 times the pre-pandemic PEG ratio given the company's forward high-teens EPS growth rate. Boot Barn's strong performance and favorable projections have solidified JPMorgan's confidence in maintaining an Overweight rating on the company's stock.
In other recent news, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. has seen significant activity with a series of analyst ratings and leadership changes. BofA Securities resumed coverage on the company, setting a Buy rating with a price target of $187, citing the company's aggressive store opening strategy and potential for growth in the western apparel industry. This move followed a 14% increase in second-quarter fiscal year 2025 revenue for Boot Barn, surpassing earnings per share expectations.
However, the company's CEO Jim Conroy announced his resignation, with Chief Digital Officer John Hazen stepping in as Interim CEO. Amid these changes, analyst firms BTIG and TD Cowen reaffirmed their Buy ratings on Boot Barn, expressing confidence in the company's growth potential. Craig-Hallum, while acknowledging the company's strong performance, adjusted its price target to $160 from $162, maintaining a Hold rating due to the CEO transition.
Meanwhile, Baird upgraded Boot Barn's stock from Neutral to Outperform, setting a new price target of $167, indicating confidence in the company's potential for delivering attractive relative earnings growth. These recent developments highlight Boot Barn's strong financial performance and the potential impact of its leadership transition.
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