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Investing.com - B.Riley initiated coverage on Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) with a Neutral rating and a $10.00 price target on Friday. The stock, currently trading at $12.36, has seen remarkable gains with a 276% year-to-date return, though InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value.
The research firm notes that the U.S. government has held Fannie Mae in conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis, following unsuccessful attempts to end this arrangement during the first Trump administration. With a market capitalization of $71.26 billion and significant volatility (Beta of 2.07), InvestingPro data shows the company faces ongoing profitability challenges.
B.Riley identifies two potential paths forward: the government could either maximize its senior position held by the U.S. Treasury and require recapitalization, which would be highly dilutive to current equity holders, or forgive the Treasury’s $121 billion senior preferred position.
The firm interprets recent comments by Treasury Secretary Bessent as aligning with the second scenario, which would minimize up-front dilution and maximize government sale of FNMA shares to investors.
B.Riley also suggests that in either scenario, the junior preferred position of $19 billion, consisting of perpetual preferreds from pre-2008, has a good chance to be made whole or pari-passu to a new preferred issuance.
In other recent news, Fannie Mae announced it has begun marketing a sale of reperforming loans valued at approximately $560.5 million. This sale includes around 3,058 loans and is part of the company’s strategy to reduce the size of its retained mortgage portfolio. Qualified bidders have until September 4, 2025, to submit their bids for participation in this sale. Additionally, Fannie Mae has revised its forecast for existing single-family home sales in 2025. The new projection estimates sales at 4.14 million units, a decrease from the previous forecast of 4.24 million units. This adjustment is attributed to updated expectations regarding interest rates, which are now anticipated to be 6.5% by the end of 2025 and 6.1% by the end of 2026. These changes reflect the company’s response to evolving economic conditions.
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