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On Friday, B.Riley analyst Griffin Boss initiated coverage on American Public Education (NASDAQ:APEI) with a Buy rating and a price target of $28.00. The new coverage follows the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report on March 6, 2024. According to InvestingPro data, APEI has demonstrated strong momentum with a 63% return over the past year and currently trades near its 52-week high of $25.60. The company’s overall financial health score is rated as "GOOD," with particularly strong marks in price momentum and cash flow management. Boss revised the firm’s fiscal year 2025 estimates, citing expectations for increased net course registrations at American Public University System (APUS) and higher student enrollments at Rasmussen University (RU) and Hondros College of Nursing (HCN).
The updated fiscal year 2025 revenue estimate was raised from $641 million to $654 million. However, the estimate for FY25 EBITDA was reduced from $81 million to $77 million, which represents an 11.8% margin. This adjustment was due to anticipated higher operating expenses than previously projected. Despite this, the new estimates remain within the guidance ranges provided by management, which are $650 million to $660 million for revenue and $75 million to $85 million for EBITDA. The company’s current revenue stands at $624.56 million with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.65%. InvestingPro analysis reveals 8 additional key insights about APEI’s financial position and growth prospects, available to subscribers.
Looking ahead, B.Riley also introduced fiscal year 2026 estimates, projecting revenue at $681 million and EBITDA at $85 million, indicating a 12.5% margin. The firm highlighted the potential for revenue synergies if American Public Education successfully consolidates its operations into a single institution. The company is currently in the process of attempting such consolidation, which B.Riley believes could contribute to top-line growth. With a current market capitalization of $416 million and a strong current ratio of 3.29, APEI maintains solid financial flexibility to execute its consolidation strategy. For comprehensive analysis of APEI’s growth potential and financial metrics, access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, American Public Education reported mixed financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company’s earnings per share fell short of expectations at $0.63, compared to the forecasted $0.69. However, revenue exceeded projections, reaching $164.1 million, surpassing the anticipated $161.78 million. Truist Securities responded to these developments by raising the company’s stock price target to $24, maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company’s positive financial performance and strategic plans for consolidation by 2025.
In addition, William Blair upgraded American Public Education’s stock from Market Perform to Outperform, highlighting the company’s robust enrollment and revenue growth, as well as improvements in profitability at its nursing colleges. Analyst Stephen Sheldon noted that the company’s shares are trading below the average of its peers, which presents a potential growth opportunity. The company has also set a positive revenue outlook for 2025, targeting $650-$660 million.
American Public Education plans to consolidate its educational institutions by the fourth quarter of 2025, which is expected to streamline operations and potentially mitigate regulatory risks. The company’s recent achievements in enrollment growth, particularly in nursing and military education sectors, are seen as promising signs for future performance. Analysts from Truist and William Blair are optimistic about the potential revenue and cost synergies from the planned consolidation of educational units.
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