Canaccord analysis shows government shutdowns typically precede market rallies

Published 01/10/2025, 12:20
Canaccord analysis shows government shutdowns typically precede market rallies

Investing.com - Canaccord Genuity released a research note Wednesday analyzing the historical market impact of U.S. government shutdowns, finding they typically precede stock market rallies, particularly for small-cap stocks. For investors looking to capitalize on potential market movements, InvestingPro offers real-time analysis tools and expert insights to help navigate political market events.

According to Canaccord’s analysis, the S&P 500 tends to experience slightly negative performance in the week leading up to government shutdowns, with an average decline of 0.3%. The firm noted that the lengthy shutdown during the Trump administration was particularly impactful, pushing the S&P 500 down 7.1% in the week before it began.

During actual shutdown periods, Canaccord’s data shows the S&P 500 typically continues to underperform slightly, with an average decline of 0.1% across historical shutdown events.

The research indicates markets typically rally after shutdowns conclude, with the S&P 500 returning an average of 3.3% over three months, 7.8% over six months, and 11.5% over 12 months following shutdown resolutions.

Small-cap stocks show even stronger post-shutdown performance, according to Canaccord, with the Russell 2000 historically gaining an average of 7.1% over three months, 16.5% over six months, and 17.9% over 12 months after shutdowns end.

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