Circle Internet Group stock price target lowered to $92 by Compass Point

Investing.com - Compass Point has lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) to $92.00 from $96.00 while maintaining a Sell rating on the stock. Currently trading at $124.79, the stock sits well above the broader analyst target range of $84-$280, according to InvestingPro data.

The firm expects Circle’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be 8% above consensus forecasts, noting that USDC supply has increased by 17% since the company reported second-quarter results on August 12.

Despite anticipating a third-quarter beat, Compass Point believes analysts will reduce their 2026 forecasts as the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. CME futures currently indicate a greater than 95% probability of three rate cuts during that period.

The research firm has adjusted its forecasts to account for five total rate cuts by year-end 2026, including three cuts in 2025. Compass Point notes that USDC supply would need to increase by 22% to offset 75 basis points of rate cuts.

Circle Internet Group currently trades at 84 times Compass Point’s revised 2026 EBITDA estimate (57 times excluding stock-based compensation), which the firm believes makes the stock vulnerable to selling pressure when pre-IPO shares unlock on November 14.

In other recent news, Circle Internet Group has been the focus of several analyst evaluations and strategic developments. Bernstein SocGen has reiterated its Outperform rating for Circle Internet Group, maintaining a price target of $230, highlighting investor concerns about competition and potential interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, Tiger Securities has lowered its price target for the company to $140 from $180, while maintaining a Hold rating, due to lower projected reserve income despite an increase in USDC stablecoin circulation. Clear Street has initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group with a Hold rating and a price target of $135, basing its evaluation on future earnings projections.

In strategic developments, Circle Internet Group has partnered with Safe to enhance USDC self-custody solutions, aiming to establish Safe as a premier institutional storage solution for USDC. This collaboration is expected to strengthen Safe’s position in secure USDC treasury management within self-custody and decentralized finance environments. Currently, Safe manages $2.5 billion in USDC through its smart accounts. Additionally, Circle Internet Group experienced a decline in stock value amid broader market reactions to rising US-China trade tensions, affecting Bitcoin-linked stocks. These recent developments provide a comprehensive view of Circle Internet Group’s current market position and strategic initiatives.

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