Citi reiterates Buy rating on Ultragenyx Pharma stock despite trial delay

Published 10/07/2025, 11:38
Citi reiterates Buy rating on Ultragenyx Pharma stock despite trial delay

Investing.com - Citi has maintained its Buy rating and $110.00 price target on Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:RARE) despite the company’s ORBIT trial proceeding to final analysis. Currently trading at $41.44, the stock sits well below analysts’ targets ranging from $39 to $136, with InvestingPro data showing 7 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward.

The stock dropped to approximately $30 following news that the trial’s second interim analysis did not meet the statistical significance threshold of p

Citi views the current price dip as a buying opportunity, noting that RARE is now trading below what it considers the base business valuation of $35-40.

Using a negative binomial model, Citi estimates approximately 85% probability that the ORBIT trial will ultimately succeed at its final analysis, based on projected placebo annualized fracture rates between 0.55-0.65 and setrusumab fracture rates approximately 50% worse than observed in Phase 2 trials.

The analysis incorporates an over-dispersion parameter of approximately 1.5 based on osteogenesis imperfecta literature, supporting the firm’s confidence in eventual trial success with statistical significance of p

In other recent news, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (TADAWUL:2070) Inc. reported a 28% increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $139 million, although the company faced a net loss of $151 million, slightly missing the EPS forecast. The company’s revenue growth was largely driven by its flagship product, Crysvita, which generated $103 million in revenue. Ultragenyx also received a boost as the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation for its Angelman syndrome drug, GTX-102, based on promising Phase 1/2 study results. The company has begun enrollment in the Phase 3 Aspire study for GTX-102, aiming to include approximately 120 children. Additionally, Ultragenyx’s Phase 3 Orbit study for UX143 in osteogenesis imperfecta will continue to final analysis, as interim results did not meet the threshold for early stoppage. William Blair has set an Outperform rating for Ultragenyx, with a price target of $65, citing the company’s strong revenue growth and potential for sustained growth. The company’s forward guidance projects total revenue for 2025 to be between $640 million and $670 million, representing a growth of 14%-20%.

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