ConocoPhillips price target lowered to $117 by UBS on Willow capex increase

Published 12/11/2025, 16:38
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Investing.com - UBS lowered its price target on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) to $117.00 from $122.00 on Wednesday, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The new target still represents approximately 30% upside from the current price of $89.63.

The price target reduction follows ConocoPhillips’ third-quarter 2025 results, which featured strong operational performance and continued execution on the company’s cost-reduction program. This performance is reflected in the company’s solid 15% return on equity and 47.4% gross profit margin for the last twelve months.

UBS cited the $1-1.5 billion capital expenditure increase for the Willow project as a key factor in its decision to lower the price target, noting this increase will reduce some of the expected free cash flow improvement.

The investment bank also pointed to ConocoPhillips’ "softer 2026 oil volume outlook" as another offsetting factor to the company’s positive operational results.

Despite these concerns, UBS maintained its Buy rating, citing ConocoPhillips’ "visible long-term volume growth and resource depth versus peers" as reasons for its continued positive long-term outlook on the stock. The company’s low volatility (beta of 0.33) and impressive 55-year dividend payment history support this long-term investment case, with a current dividend yield of 3.7%.According to InvestingPro analysis, ConocoPhillips appears undervalued at current prices, with analysts setting price targets ranging from $98 to $131. Subscribers can access ConocoPhillips’ comprehensive Pro Research Report, one of 1,400+ deep-dive analyses available exclusively on the platform.

In other recent news, ConocoPhillips announced its third-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing that the company exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The adjusted earnings came in at $1.61 per share, surpassing the forecast of $1.45. Despite this positive result, ConocoPhillips fell short of revenue expectations, reporting $14.55 billion compared to the anticipated $14.78 billion. These developments come amid various market analyses and projections. Notably, the earnings figures were a focal point for investors assessing the company’s financial health. Analyst firms have yet to release any upgrades or downgrades following these earnings results. The recent financial disclosures have provided valuable insights into ConocoPhillips’ performance for the quarter. Investors are closely watching how these figures might influence future company strategies and market positioning.

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