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Investing.com - Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated its Outperform rating on DHL Group (DHL:GR) on Thursday, maintaining a price target of EUR43.00 for the logistics company.
The research firm described DHL as "five logistics companies under a single corporate umbrella" and considers it "a solid medium-long term holding at an attractive price." Bernstein noted that DHL’s earnings are leveraged to e-commerce and world trade, with approximately 80% of EBIT tied to the former, 70% to the latter, and 60% to both.
More than half of DHL’s earnings come from its Express division, which Bernstein characterized as "a healthy three-player oligopoly with supportive pricing and GDP-plus structural growth." While the asset-heavy nature of this division creates volume risk and potential pressure on airfreight rates, Bernstein pointed out that 25% of capacity is on short-term lease, providing more flexibility than might be apparent.
Bernstein indicated that DHL is positioned to benefit from an eventual B2B volume rebound, which should improve asset utilization and boost margins. The firm suggested this improvement will require recovery in challenged customer sectors including automotive, capital goods, and technology.
The valuation metrics support Bernstein’s positive outlook, with DHL offering "GDP-plus growth for c. 11x P/E, with a well-covered 4-5% dividend and high single digit FCF yield." With current weak sentiment surrounding the stock, Bernstein sees an investment opportunity in DHL Group.
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