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UBS downgraded Evolution Mining Ltd. (ASX:EVN) from neutral to sell on Wednesday, lowering its price target to AUD6.70 from AUD8.00 amid concerns about the gold miner’s valuation following its strong year-to-date performance. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has delivered an impressive 87% return year-to-date.
The Australian gold producer has seen its shares surge 81% year-to-date, outperforming sector peers as investors viewed it as a "cleaner large cap ASX gold play" with additional copper exposure, according to UBS analyst comments.
UBS cited Evolution Mining ’s "relatively stronger" operational performance in a sector where simply meeting expectations is considered beating them, while also acknowledging the company’s copper assets provide a positive tailwind.
The downgrade follows UBS’s review of Evolution’s Reserve and Resource statement, which prompted the firm to temper its production outlook and increase capital expenditure estimates, resulting in 14% and 15% reductions to fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share forecasts, respectively.
UBS’s new price target represents a 16% reduction from its previous target, with the firm noting it "no longer has valuation support" for the stock, despite maintaining a positive long-term view on copper as the market emerges from what it terms "Liberation Day."
In other recent news, Evolution Mining has reported significant developments that are catching the attention of investors. The company announced its third-quarter production results for the fiscal year 2025, which surpassed both BMO Capital Markets’ and consensus estimates. Evolution Mining produced approximately 180,000 ounces of gold and 19,500 tonnes of copper, exceeding expectations and prompting BMO to raise its price target from AUD7.00 to AUD8.00, while maintaining a Market Perform rating. Additionally, the company reaffirmed its annual guidance and announced board approval for the Cowal Open Pit Continuation Project, signaling continued growth prospects.
In another update, JPMorgan upgraded Evolution Mining’s stock rating from Underweight to Overweight, with a new price target of AUD8.50, up from AUD5.30. This change reflects JPMorgan’s revised approach to long-term gold pricing, now set at US$3,100 per ounce, and adjustments in both gold and silver price forecasts. The firm has also incorporated an EV/EBITDA multiple alongside its discounted cash flow valuations to better capture near-term momentum. These recent upgrades and production successes highlight Evolution Mining’s strong position and potential for future growth in the mining sector.
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