Fortinet stock price target lowered to $78 by Evercore ISI on refresh cycle concerns

Published 07/08/2025, 11:28
Fortinet stock price target lowered to $78 by Evercore ISI on refresh cycle concerns

Investing.com - Evercore ISI has lowered its price target on Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) to $78.00 from $105.00 while maintaining an "In Line" rating following the company’s second-quarter results. According to InvestingPro data, Fortinet maintains impressive gross profit margins of 81.34% and shows strong financial health with a "GREAT" overall score, suggesting resilience despite market pressures.

The cybersecurity firm delivered in-line Q2 results but revealed a significant shift in its business outlook, particularly regarding its firewall refresh cycle. Fortinet disclosed that 40%-50% of the anticipated refresh cycle is already complete, a substantial revision from the previously stated 20% completion rate mentioned in Q1.

While Fortinet maintained its full-year guidance, the company announced a $50 million mix shift from services to product revenue. Services revenue grew 14.1% year-over-year, significantly below consensus expectations, which management attributed to fading COVID-era deferred revenue tailwinds, longer upsell cycles, and higher churn on acquired assets.

The size of the refresh opportunity remains unchanged at $400 million to $450 million, but the unit count increased from 580,000 to 650,000. Management indicated that higher-value appliances are being refreshed now, with lower-value units expected to make up the remaining 50% of refreshes in 2026.

Evercore ISI noted that inorganic contribution added 2 percentage points to revenue and billings growth in Q2, while management has indicated investors should expect double-digit product revenue growth next year despite the revised refresh cycle timeline. With a market capitalization of $73.92 billion and a P/E ratio of 39.44, Fortinet continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals and growth potential in the cybersecurity sector.

In other recent news, Fortinet reported billings growth of 15.4% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus expectations of 11.8%. Despite this positive earnings report, several firms have expressed concerns about the company’s future growth trajectory. Jefferies lowered its price target for Fortinet to $85, maintaining a Hold rating due to growth concerns. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded Fortinet from Overweight to Equalweight, reducing its price target significantly to $78, citing a "meaningful reset of expectations" for the firewall refresh cycle. Piper Sandler also downgraded Fortinet to Neutral, cutting the price target to $90, due to concerns about the company’s 2026 renewal cohort. KeyBanc followed suit, downgrading Fortinet to Sector Weight, with apprehensions about the product refresh cycle and underlying revenue growth. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained a Market Perform rating, noting that while billings were above expectations, commentary from Fortinet dampened enthusiasm for a potential "supercycle" bull case. These developments indicate a cautious outlook from analysts regarding Fortinet’s future performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.