Is this U.S.-China selloff a buy? A top Wall Street voice weighs in
Investing.com - Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Macquarie Group Ltd. (ASX:MQG), a $53.67 billion financial services giant, with a Sell rating and a price target of AUD207.58, citing concerns about the company’s earnings recovery trajectory. According to InvestingPro data, the company faces significant challenges with cash burn rates.
The investment bank noted that Macquarie has experienced seven earnings misses over two years and believes the current market valuation of more than 20 times FY26 estimated earnings is approximately 33% above the long-run average of about 15 times. This concern is reflected in the company’s current P/E ratio of 22.83x, with InvestingPro analysis highlighting elevated valuations relative to near-term earnings growth potential.
Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests Macquarie’s earnings trough is "broader than a simple cyclical downturn," despite management taking "decisive actions" to transform the revenue base and develop a new medium-term business mix to improve growth.
The firm forecasts slower earnings recovery with FY26-28 estimates 2-4% below consensus data, particularly projecting slower profit growth at MacCap compared to what it views as overly optimistic consensus expectations on Private Equity-related deal flow.
While Goldman Sachs believes Macquarie can maintain its approximately 20-year average return on equity of about 14%, its price target implies roughly 7% downside compared to an average 2% downside across Goldman’s bank sector coverage, resulting in a total expected 12-month return of -3% versus the coverage average of +3%. Despite these concerns, the stock has shown strong momentum with a 34.24% return over the past six months, and InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock may be slightly undervalued at current levels.
In other recent news, JPMorgan has upgraded Macquarie Group’s stock from Neutral to Overweight. The financial institution also raised its price target for Macquarie Group to AUD241.00 from AUD207.00. This upgrade is based on the outlook for rate cuts, which JPMorgan believes will positively impact the company. Macquarie Group’s share price has remained flat since the release of its November 2024 half-year results. During the same period, the ASX 200 index has increased by 10%, and the ASX 200 Banks index has risen by 17%. These developments suggest that Macquarie Group may benefit from the anticipated changes in interest rates. Investors will be watching closely to see how these factors influence the company’s performance in the coming months.
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