Guggenheim cuts Tractor Supply target to $55, keeps Buy rating

Published 25/04/2025, 13:32
Guggenheim cuts Tractor Supply target to $55, keeps Buy rating

On Friday, Guggenheim Securities adjusted the price target for Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) shares, reducing it to $55 from the previous $60, while reaffirming their Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows Tractor Supply’s first-quarter operating results for 2025, which did not meet the expectations set by the analysts. According to InvestingPro data, the company currently trades near its 52-week low of $46.85, with 14 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations downward. According to Steven Forbes of Guggenheim, the company’s revenue fell short by approximately $64 million, a discrepancy largely attributed to the delayed onset of the spring selling season this year, which management described as a 250 basis point headwind. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a solid financial foundation with a market capitalization of $26.05 billion and has consistently maintained dividend payments for 16 consecutive years.

Despite the shortfall in the top-line, Tractor Supply’s transaction comps showed resilience, with a year-over-year increase of about 2.1%. Additionally, the company experienced a mid-single-digit year-over-year rise in C.U.E. (Clothing, Utensils, Equipment) sales, with unit sales climbing in the high-single digits. Notably, Tractor Supply gained approximately 2 million net new members in the first quarter, bolstered by strong new customer acquisitions and retention rates. The company’s overall revenue growth stands at 2.07%, with a current dividend yield of 1.88%.

The company’s guidance for second-quarter comparable store sales, projecting an increase of 0-1%, also did not meet Guggenheim’s original forecasts. The market’s reaction to the quarterly performance and guidance was evident yesterday, as Tractor Supply’s stock declined by 3.4%, contrasting with a 2.0% rise in the S&P 500 index. Guggenheim attributes the bulk of the stock’s underperformance to what they refer to as management’s "complex tariff narrative."

In response to these developments, Guggenheim has made slight revisions to their estimates for Tractor Supply, in addition to the price target reduction. However, they maintain a positive outlook on the company’s stock, reiterating their Buy rating. The analyst’s commentary suggests a belief that the factors affecting this quarter’s performance are temporary and that the company’s underlying fundamentals remain strong.

In other recent news, Tractor Supply Company has reported financial results for the first quarter of 2025, missing analysts’ expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $0.34, falling short of the projected $0.37, and reported total sales of $3.47 billion, below the forecasted $3.55 billion. Following this earnings announcement, several analyst firms have adjusted their outlooks on the company’s stock. Loop Capital lowered its price target to $48.00, maintaining a Hold rating, citing disappointing earnings and revised future guidance. Jefferies also reduced its price target to $51.00, reiterating a Hold rating due to weak seasonal demand and customer hesitancy on large purchases. Meanwhile, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities cut its price target to $58.00 but kept an Outperform rating, expressing optimism about the company’s prospects despite a modest softening in performance. These developments highlight the challenges Tractor Supply faces amid uncertain economic conditions and its efforts to navigate through them.

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