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On Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Cole Hathorn downgraded ArcelorMittal’s stock (NYSE:MT:NA) (NYSE: MT), shifting from a ’Buy’ to a ’Hold’ rating, while setting the price target at EUR 33.00. ArcelorMittal, a prominent player in the steel industry with a market capitalization of $24.43 billion, has experienced a significant year-to-date (YTD) rally, with its shares increasing by 36.4%. This surge has outpaced the broader steel sector performance, as measured by the Stahl Aktienindex (SXPP), which has seen a modest 2.5% rise in the same period. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company currently appears undervalued, with multiple ProTips suggesting strong growth potential.
The upward movement in ArcelorMittal’s stock has been attributed to a notable rise in steel prices, with a 13% increase in the European Union and a 25% hike in the United States since the start of the year. Additionally, the company has seen a rebound in profit margins from cyclical lows, though InvestingPro data shows current gross profit margins remain at 9.46%. The European steel sector, in general, has benefited from a re-rating above 1x EV/EBITDA, with ArcelorMittal currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.6x. This positive sentiment has been fueled by several factors, including optimism about the reconstruction efforts in Russia and Ukraine, which could contribute an estimated $0.3-0.4 billion to ArcelorMittal’s EBITDA.
Furthermore, the German government’s spending policies, European Union policy support, and a shift in investment focus from the United States to Europe have all played a role in bolstering the sector. ArcelorMittal’s sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation has been adjusted to reflect its improved balance sheet, which now stands at less than 1x net debt to EBITDA. This is a significant improvement from its historical levels, contributing to the company’s "GOOD" overall financial health score as rated by InvestingPro, which offers comprehensive analysis of over 1,400 stocks through its Pro Research Reports.
The company has also benefited from exiting lower-margin operations, engaging in accretive mergers and acquisitions, and making strategic capital expenditures aimed at achieving structurally higher profitability throughout economic cycles. This strategy emphasizes value over volume, with management actively returning value to shareholders through a 1.48% dividend yield and aggressive share buyback programs. Looking ahead, Jefferies anticipates that ArcelorMittal’s strategic projects will contribute approximately $0.4 billion to EBITDA in 2025, with projections of $0.6 billion per annum in 2026 and 2027.
ArcelorMittal’s commitment to delivering positive free cash flow while simultaneously returning capital to shareholders has also been highlighted. The company plans to execute this through a policy of buybacks amounting to 50% of free cash flow after dividends. Despite the downgrade, Jefferies has maintained a positive outlook on ArcelorMittal, acknowledging the company’s financial strategies and its potential for future growth.
In other recent news, ArcelorMittal is reportedly close to securing a funding deal with the South African government to keep its local steel mills operational. The proposed support package is valued at approximately 500 million rand ($28 million) and is intended to cover steelworker salaries over the next six to eight months. Additionally, discussions about further financial support through the state-owned Industrial Development Corp. (IDC) could lead to an increased stake for the IDC in ArcelorMittal. Meanwhile, CFRA has raised its price target for ArcelorMittal shares from EUR26.00 to EUR29.00, maintaining a Hold rating. Analyst Wan Nurhayati highlighted the company’s strategic growth projects and the potential long-term demand for steel driven by energy transition.
JPMorgan also raised its price target for ArcelorMittal to EUR30.50, while keeping a Neutral rating, citing concerns about the European steel industry’s outlook. The analysts pointed to potential oversupply issues and geopolitical risks that could affect the company’s profitability. In other developments, shares of ArcelorMittal and other European steelmakers surged following Germany’s announcement of increased infrastructure and defense spending. This news, combined with China’s decision to cut steel output, has fueled optimism for higher steel demand and prices. The market’s response reflects a positive outlook, despite the challenges posed by global trade tensions and overcapacity in the industry.
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