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On Monday, JPMorgan upgraded Mosaic stock (NYSE:MOS) from Neutral to Overweight and increased the price target to $29 from $26. Currently trading at $23.92, near its 52-week low of $23.05, the stock has caught analysts’ attention. The firm’s analysts see a promising year-ahead performance for the company, citing higher expected prices for its key fertilizers. They believe Mosaic has the potential to expand sales volumes, which were previously limited due to hurricanes in the latter half of 2024. InvestingPro data shows three analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward, suggesting growing confidence in the company’s outlook.
The analysts project that Mosaic could achieve an EBITDA of $2.4 billion in 2025, up from $2.2 billion in 2024, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.2 billion for 2025. They also anticipate that Mosaic could realize a free cash flow yield of 8% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. At present, Mosaic’s shares are trading at 4.7 times EBITDA for 2025 estimates and 4.8 times for 2026 estimates. The company offers a notable dividend yield of 3.68% and has maintained dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, according to InvestingPro analysis.
JPMorgan’s valuation does not yet account for the value of Mosaic’s holdings in Ma’aden shares, which are estimated to be worth between $4.50 and $5.00 per share and could start to be monetized in 2027. The revised December 2025 price target of $29 is based on a 5.5 times multiple of EBITDA and a 7%-8% free cash flow yield, according to the analysts’ statement. InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report covering this $7.58 billion market cap company.
In other recent news, Mosaic Company reported disappointing Q4 2024 financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, falling short of the projected $0.61. The company’s revenue also missed expectations, coming in at $2.82 billion compared to the anticipated $2.92 billion. A significant foreign exchange loss of $390 million impacted Mosaic’s net income, which totaled $169 million for the quarter. Despite these challenges, the company expressed optimism for 2025, citing strong agricultural fundamentals and planned capacity expansions. Furthermore, Mosaic’s adjusted EBITDA was $594 million, with its Mosaic Fertilizantes segment contributing $82 million. Analyst firms have not made any new ratings changes, but the market reaction to the earnings miss has been notable. The company continues to focus on operational improvements and strategic asset reallocations to enhance future performance.
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