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On Monday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) maintained a positive stance on nCino Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) shares, reiterating an Outperform rating alongside a $28.00 price target. The firm’s analyst, Ryan Tomasello, expressed continued confidence in the financial software company’s guidance for fiscal year 2026 and its long-term growth potential after a recent discussion with key nCino executives.
The conversation included nCino’s CEO Sean Desmond, CFO Greg Orenstein, and Harrison Masters from Strategic Finance & Investor Relations. Tomasello highlighted that the company’s management stands by their FY26 guidance, which they consider to be conservative. The analyst also noted optimism regarding nCino’s ability to achieve, and possibly exceed, the targets set for the future.
In the analysis referred to as Exhibit 1, KBW bridged nCino’s Annual Contract Value (ACV) guidance with gross bookings and churn drivers, providing a detailed look at the potential revenue streams and customer retention factors that could influence the company’s financial trajectory.
Despite the potential risks posed by tariffs, Tomasello’s assessment suggests that these concerns are unlikely to derail nCino’s progress towards its FY26 goals. The firm’s outlook on nCino is backed by a thorough examination of the company’s performance indicators and market position. While the stock has faced recent headwinds, with a -21.91% return over the past week, analysts maintain an average price target that suggests potential upside. For comprehensive analysis and detailed metrics, investors can access nCino’s full Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
Investors and interested parties were encouraged to contact KBW or its sales team for a replay of the conversation with nCino’s executives, indicating an openness to share the insights that underpin the firm’s positive rating and price target for nCino stock.
In other recent news, nCino Inc. reported its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 financial results, revealing a revenue of $141.4 million, which marked a 14% increase from the previous year and slightly exceeded the consensus estimate of $140.9 million. Subscription revenue also grew to $125.0 million, surpassing expectations and reflecting an acceleration from the prior quarter. However, the company’s non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12 did not meet the anticipated $0.19, impacted by foreign exchange headwinds.
Following these results, several analyst firms adjusted their outlooks on nCino. UBS reduced the company’s stock price target to $30, citing fiscal year 2026 guidance that projected subscription and total revenue below market expectations. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also lowered their price target to $28, maintaining an Outperform rating despite the conservative revenue guidance. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs downgraded nCino from Buy to Neutral, with a new price target of $24, due to slower-than-expected performance in the company’s core commercial business.
Needham adjusted its price target to $28 while keeping a Buy rating, noting challenges in the mortgage sector and foreign exchange impacts. Citizens JMP lowered the price target to $32, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, as they balanced strong billing and subscription revenue growth against lower-than-expected EPS. These developments reflect a cautious yet optimistic perspective from analysts on nCino’s future performance amidst current challenges.
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