Keefe analysts cut nCino stock price target to $28, maintain Outperform

Published 03/04/2025, 12:36
Keefe analysts cut nCino stock price target to $28, maintain Outperform

On Thursday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods updated their financial outlook on nCino Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO), reducing the price target from $40.00 to $28.00. Despite the adjustment, the firm maintained an Outperform rating on the company’s shares. The revision followed nCino’s announcement of its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance, which fell short of already modest market expectations.

The analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Ryan Tomasello, noted that the company’s guidance miss led to a significant 30% sell-off in after-hours trading. Tomasello described this reaction as excessive, emphasizing that nCino’s stock is now trading at approximately 4 times revenue and 18 times free cash flow. This valuation stands in contrast to its peers, which trade around 6 times revenue and 30 times free cash flow.

Tomasello expressed a belief that nCino has turned into more of a turnaround story but still sees it as a buying opportunity at the current levels. He pointed out that there are multiple sources of potential upside to what is perceived as a conservative revenue guide from management. Additionally, Tomasello highlighted that the potential for margin expansion at nCino beyond this year is not fully appreciated by the market. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 60% and operates with a moderate debt level, according to InvestingPro’s comprehensive financial health analysis.

The reduction in the price target to $28 reflects both the lowered estimates and the firm’s ongoing confidence in nCino’s stock. Despite the downward revision, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods’ Outperform rating suggests they continue to see nCino as a favorable investment compared to its sector.

nCino, which specializes in cloud banking, has experienced volatility following its latest financial guidance. However, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods’ stance indicates a belief in the company’s long-term growth potential and its ability to outperform despite the near-term challenges reflected in its updated revenue guidance.

In other recent news, nCino Inc. has seen a series of analyst revisions following its recent financial disclosures and market conditions. The company reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $141.4 million, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, and subscription revenue also rose to $125.0 million, both slightly exceeding consensus estimates. However, nCino’s earnings per share fell short of expectations, impacted by foreign exchange headwinds, which contributed to a cautious outlook for fiscal year 2026.

Analysts have adjusted their price targets for nCino, reflecting varied perspectives on its future performance. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, lowering the price target to $24 due to concerns over internal execution and external market conditions. Needham, while reducing its price target to $28, maintained a Buy rating, citing long-term potential despite current challenges. Citizens JMP also adjusted its price target to $32 but continued to rate the stock as Market Outperform, highlighting strong billing growth and subscription revenue.

Barclays (LON:BARC) reduced its price target to $24, maintaining an Overweight rating, with an emphasis on nCino’s Annual Contract Value as a key business indicator. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James decreased its target to $32, keeping an Outperform rating, and expressed confidence in the company’s growth prospects despite a more modest outlook. These recent developments underscore the mixed sentiment among analysts regarding nCino’s performance amid challenging market dynamics.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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