Loop Capital maintains $45 target on PROG Holdings stock

On Monday, Loop Capital reaffirmed its Buy rating on PROG Holdings (NYSE:PRG) with a steady price target of $45.00. The firm’s analyst noted that PROG Holdings has lagged behind its peers in the lease-to-own (LTO) sector and the broader market indices since the beginning of the year, with the stock down over 35% year-to-date and currently trading near its 52-week low of $25.93. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains strong fundamentals with a healthy current ratio of 4.03x and trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 5.85x. Despite this, the analyst believes that the company’s position as a market leader, its consistent and predictable financial results, robust balance sheet, and minimal capital requirements make it a potential target for private equity firms.

The analyst at Loop Capital emphasized the potential for a leveraged buyout (LBO) of Progressive to be executed at a substantial premium to its current stock price of $27.19. Such a transaction, according to their analysis, could yield returns that surpass the benchmarks typically aimed for by financial sponsors. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with multiple indicators including RSI pointing to oversold conditions. Subscribers can access 12 additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics through the Pro Research Report. This outlook supports the firm’s decision to reiterate its Buy rating and $45 price target for PROG Holdings.

PROG Holdings’ performance is under scrutiny as it competes in the LTO industry, which offers consumers the option to lease products with the opportunity to purchase over time. The company’s ability to consistently deliver reliable financial outcomes and maintain a strong balance sheet, despite underperforming in the stock market, is highlighted as a key strength.

The suggestion of a leveraged buyout comes with the anticipation that the company’s attributes could be appealing to private equity investors looking for valuable investment opportunities. The analyst’s projection of an LBO at a significant premium indicates a belief in the inherent value within PROG Holdings that could be unlocked by such a strategic financial move.

In conclusion, Loop Capital’s reiteration of its Buy rating and price target for PROG Holdings reflects confidence in the company’s market position and financial stability, supported by InvestingPro’s overall Financial Health rating of "GOOD". The firm’s analysis suggests that these factors, coupled with the possibility of a leveraged buyout, could lead to substantial gains for the company and its investors. With a market capitalization of $1.11 billion and strong liquidity metrics, PROG Holdings presents an interesting opportunity for value-focused investors.

In other recent news, PROG Holdings has seen notable developments affecting its financial outlook. Jefferies recently downgraded PROG Holdings’ stock rating from Buy to Hold, significantly cutting the price target from $58 to $29. This downgrade reflects concerns about a slower-than-expected recovery in the industry and challenges within retail segments. Jefferies also noted that the company’s adjusted EBITDA margins are trending towards 10%, below the target range of 11-13%. Credit metrics have stabilized, but provisions as a percentage of revenue remain high.

Meanwhile, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James adjusted its price target for PROG Holdings to $40 from $48, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm highlighted that PROG Holdings’ fourth-quarter results for 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenues and gross margins surpassing projections. However, the 2025 outlook was less optimistic, influenced by the bankruptcy of Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) and increased marketing investments. Despite these challenges, Raymond James noted the company’s robust balance sheet and cash flow generation, which could support additional share repurchases.

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