Mach Natural Resources stock target cut to $26 at Texas Capital

Published 06/02/2025, 17:14
Mach Natural Resources stock target cut to $26 at Texas Capital

On Thursday, Texas Capital Securities adjusted its price target for Mach Natural Resources (NYSE:MNR), reducing it from $27.00 to $26.00, while reaffirming a Buy rating on the stock. This aligns with the broader analyst consensus, as InvestingPro data shows the stock is currently undervalued, with analyst targets ranging from $21 to $25. The revision follows a series of announcements made by Mach Natural Resources after the market closed on February 5th, including a bolt-on acquisition, debt refinancing, and a $200 million equity follow-on offering, as well as preliminary financial results for 2024.

Texas Capital Securities highlighted the positive impact of the new debt structure on Mach’s cash flow. The firm noted a significant decrease in annual amortization payments, approximately $82.5 million, or $0.70 per unit, alongside annual interest savings of about $38 million, or $0.32 per unit. With a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 and total debt of $781.31 million, analysts believe these savings will more than compensate for the dilution caused by the equity offering, which is estimated at $0.30 per unit.

The acquisition was also seen in a favorable light, as it was estimated that the assets were purchased below their proved developed producing (PDP) present value (PV-10), providing Mach with valuable proved undeveloped (PUD) locations adjacent to its current holdings. Texas Capital Securities views the acquisition as an opportunity for Mach to add high-quality assets at an attractive price.

In addition to the acquisition and restructuring, Mach Natural Resources provided a preview of its 2024 financial performance. The company’s management expects to report fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA figures that surpass consensus estimates by 5.2%. This better-than-anticipated financial outcome is seen as a positive development by Texas Capital Securities.

Overall, despite the slight decrease in the price target, the firm maintains a positive outlook on Mach Natural Resources, with the belief that the company’s strategic transactions and preliminary financial results point to a favorable future for the company’s distributions and financial health. The company currently offers an attractive dividend yield of ~14%, and InvestingPro analysis reveals 8 additional key insights about MNR’s financial health and growth prospects, including expectations for positive net income growth this year.

In other recent news, Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) has initiated a public offering of 12 million common units, with an additional 1.8 million units available for underwriters. The offering’s proceeds are targeted towards debt repayment, specifically to clear about $23 million under its super priority credit facility and reduce its term loan credit facility balance. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James & Associates, Inc., TCBI Securities, Inc., and Truist Securities, Inc. are serving as joint book-running managers for this offering.

In other developments, MNR has been recognized by Stifel for its robust history of capital return since its initial public offering. Stifel resumed coverage on MNR shares, issuing a Hold rating and setting a price target of $21.00. MNR’s strategic approach involves reinvesting half of its cash flow back into the business and distributing the remainder to its unitholders.

On a similar note, Truist Securities initiated coverage on MNR with a Buy rating and a price target of $23.00. The firm highlighted MNR’s strategic focus on maximizing distributions through the acquisition of accretive free cash flowing assets and a development program requiring minimal capital investment. MNR’s 16% distribution yield, one of the industry’s highest payout rates, was also praised. These are among the recent developments shaping the company’s trajectory.

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