Mizuho lowers Align Technology stock price target on weaker patient conversion

Published 31/07/2025, 14:46
Mizuho lowers Align Technology stock price target on weaker patient conversion

Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) lowered its price target on Align Technology (NASDAQ:ALGN) to $210.00 from $245.00 on Thursday, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the dental products company. According to InvestingPro data, the company, currently valued at $10.17 billion, appears undervalued based on its Fair Value analysis, despite trading at a P/E ratio of 37.14.

The price target reduction follows Align’s report that June trends fell short of expectations, despite the company hosting what Mizuho described as an "upbeat analyst meeting" in May 2025.

Mizuho noted that while iTero scans and Invisalign doctor case submissions appeared to be on track despite a softer end-market, patient conversion rates after scanning were weaker than anticipated. The firm attributed this weakness partly to deteriorating consumer sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The research firm highlighted that although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded notably in June, Align did not experience a corresponding improvement in its business in North America or Europe, particularly in Germany and France. China and the Asia-Pacific region, however, remained "fairly robust."

Following these developments, Mizuho trimmed its 2025 revenue growth estimate for Align from 3.5% to 0.5%, and reduced its 2026 growth projection from 6.5% to 3.9%. The firm also lowered its earnings per share estimates to $9.90 from $10.20 for 2025, and to $10.60 from $11.30 for 2026.

In other recent news, Align Technology reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, missing both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations. The company posted an EPS of $2.49, falling short of the projected $2.57, and reported revenue of $1.012 billion, below the anticipated $1.06 billion. Following these results, Align Technology lowered its full-year guidance, leading to concerns among analysts. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded Align Technology from Overweight to Equalweight, citing growth concerns and reducing its price target from $249.00 to $154.00. Stifel also adjusted its price target for Align Technology, lowering it to $200.00 from $275.00, while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm pointed out that case volume trends weakened in June despite high consumer interest. Barclays (LON:BARC) analyst Hassan Al-Wakeel described Align’s performance as a negative indicator for competitors like Straumann. These developments highlight the challenges Align Technology faces in meeting market expectations.

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