Morgan Stanley cuts ArcelorMittal stock rating to Equal-weight

Published 14/02/2025, 07:56
Morgan Stanley cuts ArcelorMittal stock rating to Equal-weight

On Friday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Alain Gabriel downgraded ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT)'s stock from Overweight to Equalweight, setting a price target of EUR29.80. The downgrade comes after a period in which the company's shares have significantly outperformed compared to underlying steel margins, with the stock posting an impressive 32.37% return over the past six months. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of $29.38, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. This rally has been propelled by a combination of factors, including an anticipated improved policy environment in Europe, with a safeguard review and anti-dumping investigations expected to provide a favorable backdrop. Despite trading at a relatively modest P/E ratio of 16.97, InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a healthy financial position with a "GOOD" overall health score, supported by strong cash flows that adequately cover interest payments.

The company's performance has also been buoyed by the heightened optimism over a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which has had a positive impact on the economic sentiment in Europe. ArcelorMittal, with its asset footprint in Ukraine, is viewed as a direct beneficiary of the country's potential reconstruction. However, according to Morgan Stanley, the recent re-rating of the company's equity seems disproportionate when considering the potential earnings impact from increased shipments to Ukraine, estimated at around $0.4 billion.

The analyst's commentary highlights that while ArcelorMittal's spot EBITDA run-rate has turned and the European policy landscape is expected to improve, the extent of the stock's re-rating has surpassed the potential earnings impact. This assessment has led to the repositioning of the stock's rating to Equalweight, suggesting that the stock's current price more accurately reflects its value when considering the forecasted earnings.

ArcelorMittal has been identified as a key player in the potential rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, which could lead to increased demand for its products. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that the market's current valuation of the company's shares may have exceeded the realistic earnings contribution from such activities.

Investors and market watchers will be keeping a close eye on ArcelorMittal's performance, as well as the evolving situation in Europe, to gauge the accuracy of Morgan Stanley's projections and the future movements of the company's stock price. For deeper insights into ArcelorMittal's valuation and prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access an extensive research report, along with 16 additional ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics that help paint a complete picture of the company's outlook.

In other recent news, ArcelorMittal has seen a series of adjustments to its price targets by various financial firms. Goldman Sachs analyst Matt Greene increased the price target for ArcelorMittal to EUR26.10 following a stronger-than-anticipated end to the year, especially in the iron ore division. Meanwhile, JPMorgan raised its price target to EUR23.50, reflecting the company's robust fourth-quarter financial performance. CFRA also adjusted its price target for ArcelorMittal to €26.00, citing better performance in the Mining segment.

Citi increased its price target for ArcelorMittal to EUR40.00, highlighting the growth potential of the Indian steel market, where ArcelorMittal is positioned as a significant player. BofA Securities analyst Patrick Mann upgraded shares of ArcelorMittal from Neutral to Buy and increased the price target from EUR28.00 to EUR31.00. This upgrade was based on a shift in ArcelorMittal's earnings structure and regional investment focus.

These are recent developments, and they reflect the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects in various markets. ArcelorMittal's year-end results surpassed earnings expectations, with Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) of $1.65 billion for the December quarter. The company also declared a 10% year-over-year increase in its dividend to $0.55 per share. ArcelorMittal anticipates a rise in apparent steel demand for the fiscal year 2025, with specific growth expectations for Europe, the USA, and India.

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