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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Izabel Dobreva upgraded B&M European Value Retail SA (LON:BMEB) (BME:LN) (OTC: BMRRY) stock rating from Underweight to Equalweight, setting a new price target at £3.10, down from the previous £3.29. The adjustment comes amid expectations of possible strategic changes within the company that could lead to a market re-rating.
Dobreva’s analysis suggests that if B&M undertakes a significant restructuring, the market might adopt a "buy the last cut" approach, especially if a new strategic plan gains market confidence. Despite a potential 25% cut to consensus earnings per share (EPS) in a "margin reset" scenario, the analyst anticipates about a 5% upside compared to the last close, factoring in a gradual re-rating to 10 times earnings over time.
The upgrade reflects the belief that B&M’s share price, which has significantly underperformed in the last 12 months, may have reached its lowest point. However, Dobreva cautions investors about expecting a quick turnaround. Fiscal year 2026 is expected to be a transition period, with negative like-for-like (LfL) sales and a potential special dividend per share (DPS) cut as the company addresses structural issues.
Dobreva also acknowledges the possibility of being premature in the upgrade, noting that if the stock’s multiple remains constant in the near term, there could be further downside before any potential re-rating occurs. The analyst’s comments reflect a cautious optimism for B&M’s future stock performance, underlining the importance of strategic initiatives and market confidence in driving shareholder value.
In other recent news, B&M European Value Retail SA has been the focus of positive analyst attention. Berenberg has reiterated its Buy rating on B&M, maintaining a price target of £6.30. The firm cites B&M’s strong position in the value-focused retail sector and its performance in sales, margins, and cash flow that surpass pre-pandemic levels. Berenberg highlights the company’s historical performance, noting that B&M has returned approximately £1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends from 2020 to 2024, which is about 55% of its current market capitalization. The analyst firm projects an annual total dividend yield of around 10%, reflecting continued strong capital returns to shareholders. Additionally, B&M’s management is reviewing the group’s corporate domicile, a move that could enhance the company’s flexibility in shareholder capital returns, possibly through share buybacks. Berenberg’s analysis underscores B&M’s ability to sustain profitability and shareholder returns over the long term. These developments are noteworthy for investors considering B&M’s growth and dividend prospects.
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