Morgan Stanley reiterates Equalweight rating on Nutrien stock at $65

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintained its Equalweight rating and $65.00 price target on Nutrien (NYSE:NTR), which is currently trading near its 52-week high of $65.08 and has delivered an impressive 38.93% return year-to-date. The rating comes ahead of the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report, scheduled for August 6.

The investment bank revised its second-quarter 2025 EBITDA estimate downward from $2,567 million to $2,399 million, which remains above the consensus estimate of $2,297 million. Similarly, Morgan Stanley adjusted its second-quarter earnings per share projection from $2.79 to $2.53, still exceeding the consensus of $2.37. With a market capitalization of $29.71 billion and a current dividend yield of 3.58%, Nutrien has demonstrated consistent shareholder returns, having raised its dividend for seven consecutive years.

For full-year 2025, Morgan Stanley now forecasts EBITDA of $5,915 million, slightly below its previous estimate of $5,958 million but above the consensus of $5,683 million. The firm’s 2025 EPS estimate was reduced from $4.41 to $4.34, remaining higher than the consensus expectation of $4.08.

Looking further ahead, Morgan Stanley made minor adjustments to its 2026 EBITDA projection, increasing it from $5,568 million to $5,591 million, which falls below the consensus of $5,772 million. The firm’s 2026 EPS forecast was raised slightly from $3.89 to $3.93, still under the consensus of $4.20.

Morgan Stanley noted that most analysts have not yet updated their models for the upcoming quarterly report from the fertilizer and agricultural products company. According to InvestingPro, management has been actively buying back shares, and the company maintains strong financial health metrics. For deeper insights into Nutrien’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Nutrien Ltd. reported first-quarter earnings that did not meet analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.11 falling short of the $0.36 consensus estimate. The company’s revenue was $5.1 billion, slightly below the expected $5.2 billion. Nutrien’s adjusted EBITDA declined 19% year-over-year to $852 million, primarily due to lower potash prices in North America and weaker retail earnings. Despite these results, Nutrien maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting retail adjusted EBITDA between $1.65 billion and $1.85 billion and potash sales volumes between 13.6 million and 14.4 million tonnes.

In other developments, RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Nutrien to $65, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing the company’s strong fundamentals and operational execution. BofA Securities also increased its price target for Nutrien to $63, reaffirming a Buy rating based on the company’s potential for growth in the potash market. However, Jefferies downgraded Nutrien from Buy to Hold, expressing concerns about long-term supply shocks and potential margin pressures. Similarly, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James downgraded Nutrien to Market Perform, noting recent share price gains and a potential decoupling from corn prices. These recent developments highlight varied analyst perspectives on Nutrien’s future performance amidst fluctuating market conditions.

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