National CineMedia price target lowered to $7 by Benchmark on ad concerns

Published 25/06/2025, 15:36
National CineMedia price target lowered to $7 by Benchmark on ad concerns

Investing.com - Benchmark lowered its price target on National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) stock to $7.00 from $8.00 on Wednesday, while maintaining a Buy rating on the cinema advertising company. The stock, currently trading at $5.04, maintains a Strong Buy consensus among analysts, with targets ranging from $6.00 to $8.00.

The price target reduction reflects weaker-than-expected monetization of surprise film upside and tariff-related pressure on national advertising categories, according to Benchmark’s research note. Despite current challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains strong liquidity with a healthy current ratio of 2.29 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet.

For the second quarter, Benchmark now forecasts revenue of $55 million, below the company’s guidance range of $56-61 million, and adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization (AOIBDA) of $2.1 million, compared to National CineMedia’s guidance of $2.5-7.5 million.

The research firm also reduced its full-year 2025 revenue projection to $250.4 million from $260.1 million previously, with AOIBDA now expected at $42.8 million, down from the earlier estimate of $48.3 million.

Benchmark cited a challenging third-quarter setup compared to last year’s post-pandemic peak, noting that while National CineMedia’s long-term positioning remains attractive, near-term visibility into national advertising spending remains soft. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels. Subscribers can access 6 additional ProTips and a comprehensive Pro Research Report for deeper insights into NCMI’s financial health and growth prospects.

In other recent news, National CineMedia reported a 7% decline in revenue for the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching $34.9 million. The company’s national advertising revenue also fell from $29.5 million to $27.4 million. Despite these challenges, National CineMedia signed a five-year contract extension with AMC Theatres, which is expected to enhance revenue opportunities through additional advertising inventory. Analyst opinions on National CineMedia are mixed; B.Riley initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $6 price target, citing economic uncertainties, while Benchmark maintained a Buy rating with an $8 target, noting the company’s strategic initiatives and debt-free balance sheet. The company has also launched new AI-powered platforms, Bullseye and Blueprint, aimed at enhancing advertising capabilities. National CineMedia’s outlook for the second quarter of 2025 includes revenue projections between $56 million and $61 million, with expectations of a strong movie slate contributing to future growth. The company is optimistic about its strategic partnerships and operational momentum, despite facing a fragmented advertising market.

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