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On Monday, Needham adjusted its outlook on Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TRVI), significantly increasing the price target to $25.00 from the previous $8.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. The company’s shares, currently trading at $4.30, have shown impressive momentum with a 51.41% return over the past year, according to InvestingPro data. The revision follows Trevi’s positive results from its Proof of Concept (PoC) RIVER trial, which evaluated the efficacy of Haduvio in treating refractory chronic cough (RCC). The trial, involving approximately 66 participants, successfully met its primary endpoint, showcasing a 57% placebo-adjusted reduction in 24-hour cough frequency, a result that surpasses the efficacy levels of other RCC treatments currently in development.
The analyst from Needham highlighted that Haduvio’s performance was consistent across both moderate and severe cases of RCC, marking a pivotal moment for Trevi Therapeutics. The success of the RIVER trial is expected to significantly expand Haduvio’s market potential, especially considering the size of the U.S. patient population suffering from RCC, which is estimated to be between 2 million and 3 million individuals. With a market capitalization of $384.27 million and a strong financial health score rated as GOOD by InvestingPro, the company appears well-positioned to advance its clinical programs. This figure starkly contrasts with the 140,000 patients dealing with IPF cough, indicating a substantial market opportunity for Trevi.
The absence of FDA-approved treatments for RCC positions Haduvio as a potential front-runner in this therapeutic space. The Needham report also notes the acquisition of camlipixant, another RCC candidate, by GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK; not rated) for $2 billion in 2023, underscoring the high stakes involved in the development of effective RCC therapies.
Needham’s revised price target of $25 for Trevi Therapeutics reflects the firm’s updated model, which now includes the RCC indication. This adjustment is based on the anticipation that Haduvio could reach approximately $2 billion at peak sales, providing a more optimistic financial outlook for the company’s future. The company maintains a healthy current ratio of 7.38, while analyst targets range from $7 to $21, suggesting significant potential upside. For deeper insights into TRVI’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.
In other recent news, Trevi Therapeutics has reported positive topline results from their Phase 2a RIVER trial for Haduvio, a treatment for refractory chronic cough (RCC) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The trial showed a significant reduction in chronic cough frequency, with a 67% reduction in 24-hour cough frequency from baseline. This development has led to increased analyst interest, with Clear Street maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of $11, noting Haduvio’s potential advantage in the RCC market. Stifel also raised its price target from $8 to $12, highlighting the drug’s broad activity in treating chronic cough. B.Riley increased their price target to $11, citing successful trial progress and favorable results in cough frequency reduction.
Additionally, Trevi has completed a sample size re-estimation for their Phase IIb CORAL study, ensuring the trial remains on track. The company’s successful $50 million financing extends its cash runway to the end of 2026, alleviating short-term financial concerns. Meanwhile, Travere Therapeutics announced plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application for FILSPARI for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, a rare kidney disorder. The submission is based on data from the Phase 3 DUPLEX and Phase 2 DUET studies, with the potential to address a significant unmet medical need.
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