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On Monday, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu downgraded Parsons Corporation (NYSE:PSN) stock rating from Buy to Hold and reduced the price target to $65 from the previous $75. The stock, which has declined over 43% in the past six months according to InvestingPro data, faces headwinds despite reporting mixed results. While Parsons saw a 2% organic revenue contraction in the first quarter, the company achieved a 7% increase excluding its Confidential Program (CP).
Kahyaoglu provided insights into the company’s financial dynamics, noting the expected ramp-up to meet a 15% organic growth target for 2025, excluding the CP, and 5% organic growth overall. The company maintains a solid financial foundation, with InvestingPro data showing a healthy 21.2% gross margin and moderate debt levels. However, the analyst estimated that the CP contract, which is anticipated to generate $658 million in the current year, will decrease by 50% compared to $1.3 billion in 2024.
The unwinding of the CP contract is projected to create an 8-point headwind in 2026. This is expected to keep the year-over-year organic growth flat and could impact the company’s market multiple. Kahyaoglu’s price target of $65 is based on a price-to-earnings ratio that aligns with the market, contrasting with Parsons’ three-year average which was 15% higher.
The forecasted reduction in the CP contract, which is slated to diminish to zero by 2026, poses a significant challenge for Parsons as it strives to meet its mid-single-digit plus targets. The analyst’s outlook suggests that while the company may achieve stability in organic growth, it might come at the cost of its previously held market premium.
In other recent news, Parsons Corporation reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showcasing a mixed financial performance. The company surpassed earnings per share expectations with an EPS of $0.78, compared to the forecasted $0.74. However, Parsons fell short on revenue forecasts, posting $1.55 billion against the anticipated $1.62 billion. The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, projecting total revenue between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, with plans to pursue 2-3 acquisitions this year.
In analyst updates, Baird downgraded Parsons from Outperform to Neutral, adjusting the price target to $69 from $72. The downgrade reflects concerns over a significant $725 million annual revenue contract under review by the Trump administration, which could impact the company’s Federal business segment. Baird noted potential downward risks in Parsons’ Federal segment guidance, although there could be upward potential in Critical Infrastructure. Despite these challenges, Parsons achieved a record backlog of $9.1 billion, with 69% funded, indicating strong future demand.
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