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On Thursday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James initiated coverage on Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $25.00. The research firm anticipates that Par Pacific, currently trading at attractive valuations with a P/E ratio of 3.27 and a market capitalization of $985 million, has considerable potential for growth as the refining industry moves through a current downturn towards what is expected to be a sustained recovery in margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics.
The analyst from Raymond James highlighted that global refining capacity is undergoing a rebalancing phase, while demand remains robust enough to gradually nudge refining margins back towards mid-cycle levels. The stock has experienced significant volatility, having declined over 50% in the past year and currently trading well below its 52-week high of $40.70. Despite a weaker performance in the refining sector in the second half of 2024, the analyst expressed optimism for an improved macroeconomic environment in the latter half of 2025, which could include factors such as global economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and planned refinery shutdowns.
Par Pacific's diversified business, which includes a strong presence in both retail and logistics, is seen as an asset that will support the company during periods of softer refining margins. The company's business strategy, which encompasses a competitive refining system and solid regional and business line diversification, is considered to be well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated macroeconomic inflection point. InvestingPro data reveals that while the company operates with significant debt, its liquid assets exceed short-term obligations with a current ratio of 1.69. Get access to 10+ additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro's detailed research reports.
While acknowledging the uncertain nature of the macro recovery and recent weak refining margins, Raymond James maintains a positive outlook on Par Pacific's ability to benefit from the eventual market upturn. The firm's initiation of coverage with a positive rating and a $25.00 price target reflects their confidence in Par Pacific's strategic approach and potential for margin recovery.
In other recent news, Par Pacific Holdings has experienced a series of significant developments. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities has reiterated a Neutral rating on Par Pacific's shares, anticipating a decrease in both EBITDA and EPS for the fourth quarter of 2024. Mizuho's price target of $22.00 is influenced by the broader weakness in the refining sub-sector, offset by Par Pacific's competitive positioning.
In addition, Par Pacific has increased its term loan credit agreement by $100 million, bringing the total principal balance to $650 million. This strategic financial move aims to strengthen the company's financial position.
Another recent development includes the upcoming resignation of board member Mr. Anthony Chase, effective November 15, 2024.
Regarding financial performance, Par Pacific reported mixed results for the third quarter of 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA of $51 million and an adjusted net loss of $0.10 per share. Despite a slight decline in same-store fuel volumes, the company achieved a record refining throughput of 198,000 barrels per day and a 3.8% increase in merchandise sales.
Looking forward, Par Pacific plans to cut its fixed operating expenses by $30 million to $40 million in 2025 to improve market resilience. The company is also investing in a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) project in Hawaii as part of its strategic growth initiatives.
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