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On Friday, Stifel analysts maintained their positive stance on Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) shares, reiterating a Buy rating and a $30.00 price target. Following Carnival’s first quarter financial results for 2025, the company reported strong performance metrics that surpassed Stifel’s expectations and consensus estimates. With a market capitalization of $27.8 billion and a moderate P/E ratio of 12, InvestingPro data shows Carnival maintains a GOOD overall financial health score, though current analysis suggests the stock may be trading above its Fair Value.
Carnival’s gross and net revenue reached $5.8 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively, exceeding forecasts and consensus which were pegged at $5.7 billion and $4.3 billion. The company’s fuel expense amounted to $465 million, with a net interest expense of $370 million. Notably, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.2 billion, which outperformed guidance by $165 million. This figure also surpassed Stifel’s projection of $1.06 billion, which was in line with the general consensus. The strong performance aligns with the company’s impressive 15.88% revenue growth over the last twelve months.
In terms of earnings per share (EPS), Carnival reported a GAAP EPS of ($0.06) and an adjusted EPS of $0.13. These numbers were ahead of Stifel’s estimated EPS of $0.01 and the consensus of $0.02. Customer deposits also saw a significant increase, reaching $6.8 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025, marking a 7% increase from the fourth quarter of 2024 and a year-over-year rise, setting a new record for the first quarter. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed analysis of Carnival’s profitability metrics, including comprehensive Pro Research Reports that provide deep insights into the company’s financial health and growth potential.
Carnival has updated its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting an adjusted EPS of $1.83, up from the previous $1.70 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA projections have also been raised to approximately $6.7 billion from $6.6 billion. Furthermore, the company anticipates a 4.7% growth in constant currency net yield, up from the earlier 4.2% estimate, and a 3.8% growth in net cruise costs excluding fuel, slightly higher than the former 3.7% forecast.
Despite acknowledging the heightened economic uncertainty since the fourth quarter of 2024, Carnival’s management remains optimistic. They have observed continued strength in demand as reflected in bookings, with higher prices for sailings scheduled in 2025 and beyond.
In other recent news, Carnival Corporation has been the focus of multiple analyst assessments and industry developments. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) analysts have reiterated an Outperform rating for Carnival, setting a price target of $32, citing the company’s robust free cash flow projections and potential for minor tailwinds from foreign exchange and fuel prices in fiscal year 2025. Stifel analysts have adjusted their price target for Carnival to $30 from $34 while maintaining a Buy rating, noting a shift in investor sentiment despite strong cruise demand. Bernstein has maintained a Market Perform rating with a $26 price target, highlighting Carnival’s significant debt refinancing efforts which are expected to save $154 million in annual interest expenses, potentially boosting earnings per share.
The broader travel industry, including Carnival, faced a downturn as airlines like Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) revised their profit forecasts downward, casting a shadow over travel-related stocks. Despite this, UBS analysts view challenges faced by Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) Holdings as company-specific, suggesting that Carnival and other cruise lines may not experience similar issues. UBS’s analysis points to strong demand in luxury and premium segments for Carnival, contrasting with Norwegian’s softer yield guidance. These recent developments offer investors varied insights into Carnival’s financial outlook and the broader travel sector’s dynamics.
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