Stifel maintains Buy on MaxLinear, keeps $26 target

Published 27/01/2025, 16:26
Stifel maintains Buy on MaxLinear, keeps $26 target

On Monday, Stifel analysts maintained a positive outlook on MaxLinear shares (NASDAQ:MXL), reiterating a Buy rating and a price target of $26.00. With earnings due in just two days, and InvestingPro data showing seven analysts revising their earnings estimates downward, the firm anticipates fourth-quarter 2024 earnings to be consistent with or slightly higher than their estimate of $90.0 million, marking an 11.0% increase quarter over quarter. They also highlighted a possible slight revenue boost from the Infrastructure sector due to AI-driven demand for PAM4 DSP products.

The analysts expect MaxLinear to potentially guide first-quarter 2025 revenues in line with Stifel's above-consensus estimate of $94.5 million, which would represent a 5.0% sequential increase compared to the Street's projection of $93.5 million. The Infrastructure business, particularly PAM4 DSPs, is seen as a possible source of slight upside. However, there is a noted downside risk in the Industrial & Multi-Market segment due to a general softness in broad-based analog, as indicated by Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN)' recent comments on continued industrial weakness. This concern is somewhat alleviated by MaxLinear's significantly reduced run-rate in that area.

Stifel's recommendation to maintain a Buy rating is based on the company's multi-layered, near-term and long-term program ramps. These include Cloud/Data Center initiatives featuring 400G and 800G PAM-4 DSP, 5G Infrastructure projects with 4x4 and 8x8 5G mMIMO transceivers and wireless backhaul, as well as Enterprise/Data Center Storage advancements like the Panther 3 accelerators. The $26 price target set by Stifel is grounded on a multiple of 4.8 times the projected CY25E EV/Sales ratio, with analyst targets ranging from $15 to $28. According to InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be fairly valued at its current price of $20.70. Get the full analysis and 7 additional key insights with InvestingPro's comprehensive research report.

In other recent news, MaxLinear has been the focus of several developments. Benchmark has increased its price target for MaxLinear to $28.00, up from $22.00, and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock. The firm's analyst expressed confidence in MaxLinear's growth prospects, citing positive booking trends and strong demand for infrastructure. Despite concerns regarding potential liabilities related to Silicon Motion (NASDAQ:SIMO) Technology Corporation, the analyst anticipates a positive outcome from the ongoing arbitration, expected to conclude by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

Simultaneously, MaxLinear announced the upcoming departure of its Vice President and General Manager of the Broadband Group, William G. Torgerson. The company plans an internal transition, with Torgerson's duties expected to be absorbed by other members of the existing management team. These are recent developments that investors are closely monitoring.

MaxLinear's business fundamentals are reportedly strengthening, and the introduction of new products and a recovery in data center connectivity demand are projected to support substantial annualized revenue growth. Benchmark's analysis suggests that MaxLinear's stock has the potential for significant growth due to these underlying business drivers. Despite a lag in performance compared to its peers, MaxLinear is expected to benefit from its involvement in AI-related sectors, likely leading to upward revisions in fiscal year 2025 and 2026 consensus estimates.

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