Stifel raises GFL Environmental stock rating with steady C$85 target

Published 25/02/2025, 16:42
Stifel raises GFL Environmental stock rating with steady C$85 target

On Tuesday, Stifel analyst Brian J. Butler raised the stock rating for GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL:CN) (NYSE: GFL) from "Hold" to "Buy," maintaining a price target of C$85.00. The company, currently valued at $17.6 billion, has shown strong momentum with a 29% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a bullish consensus on the stock, which currently trades slightly above its Fair Value. GFL Environmental reported a robust finish to fiscal year 2024, with fourth-quarter year-over-year organic solid waste price and volume growth surpassing expectations. The company’s solid waste growth figures came in at 6.0% and 2.3%, respectively, outpacing the forecasted 5.2% and 0.2%. This performance aligns with InvestingPro’s analysis, which highlights the company’s impressive 32% revenue CAGR over the past five years and indicates expected net income growth this year.

The company’s strong performance contributed to a significant increase in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) margins, which rose by 300 basis points year-over-year to 29.1%. For the full fiscal year 2024, GFL Environmental’s adjusted free cash flow (FCF) grew by 17% year-over-year to C$820 million, exceeding the guidance of C$810 million. The company maintains a "FAIR" overall financial health score according to InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis, which includes 8 additional key insights available to subscribers.

GFL Environmental’s leverage, calculated in constant currency, ended the year at 3.85 times, aligning with the company’s target. Looking ahead, GFL provided an optimistic forecast for fiscal year 2025, projecting revenue to increase by 7.2% to C$8.425 billion, including the expected contributions from Environmental Solutions (ES). This revenue growth estimate is higher than the consensus projection of 6.7%. Additionally, the company anticipates AEBITDA to reach C$2.5 billion, indicating a margin of 29.7% and an 11.1% increase over the consensus estimate of C$2.482 billion with a 29.6% margin.

The AEBITDA guidance, even without the benefit of foreign exchange fluctuations, is estimated to represent an approximate 9% increase. The anticipated sale of ES, expected to close on March 1, will enable GFL Environmental to reduce its leverage to 3.0 times and potentially reinvigorate its mergers and acquisitions strategy. This could provide additional upside to the company’s current guidance. With the stock showing relatively low price volatility and analysts projecting profitability this year, investors seeking detailed analysis can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, GFL Environmental Inc. has been the focus of several analyst updates following its announcement to sell a majority interest in its Environmental Services (ES) division. BMO Capital Markets adjusted its price target for GFL Environmental to $47.00, maintaining a Market Perform rating, citing the transaction’s minimal tax implications and potential for increased mergers and acquisitions activity. Meanwhile, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James reiterated an Outperform rating on GFL Environmental, highlighting the C$8.0 billion sale of the ES segment, which includes a C$6.2 billion cash component and a C$1.7 billion retained equity interest. This deal is expected to reduce debt and enhance free cash flow, although it may slightly dilute free cash flow on a pro forma basis.

CIBC (TSX:CM) also expressed optimism, raising its price target for GFL Environmental to Cdn$75.00 and projecting a significant margin expansion of approximately 600 basis points from 2025 to 2027. The firm anticipates GFL Environmental’s margins to potentially enter the low-30% range, outpacing industry averages. In parallel, Citi initiated coverage on GFL Environmental with a Buy rating and a price target of $53.00, reflecting confidence in the company’s prospects.

NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), on the other hand, announced a strategic shift to reintegrate gas development into its growth strategy, partnering with GE Vernova for natural gas power generation solutions. Citi reiterated a Neutral rating on NextEra Energy, with a revised price target of $74.00, highlighting the potential enhancement of the company’s value proposition by adding gas to its portfolio.

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