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On Thursday, TD Cowen analysts adjusted their price target for Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY) shares, reducing it to $960 from a previous target of $1,050. The analysts maintained a Buy rating for the pharmaceutical company, which currently commands a market capitalization of $678.85 billion. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for LLY range from $650 to $1,190, reflecting diverse market expectations for this prominent pharmaceutical player.
The adjustment comes as investor attention shifts to the upcoming Q3 results of the SURPASS-CVOT trial. A statistical analysis by TD Cowen suggests that the drug tirzepatide needs to achieve a MACE hazard ratio of 0.9 or better to demonstrate statistical superiority over dulaglutide.
Further insights from TD Cowen indicate that a survey of key opinion leaders (KOLs) shows that 92% of respondents expect the hazard ratio to be 0.85 or better. Despite this optimism among KOLs, investors are skeptical about the likelihood of achieving superiority.
The analysts also updated their financial model for Eli Lilly following the Q1 results and recent developments. Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025 remain largely intact at $21.40, aligning with the company’s guidance and close to InvestingPro’s forecast of $21.72. However, the 2026 EPS estimate has been reduced by $0.25, bringing it to $29.15. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 62.07, reflecting high growth expectations.
In other recent news, Eli Lilly has reported positive Phase 1 results for its investigational drug LY4170156, which is aimed at treating advanced ovarian cancer. The study revealed a favorable safety profile and a preliminary overall objective response rate of 55% at the suggested Phase 2 dose. Additionally, Eli Lilly announced its intention to acquire SiteOne Therapeutics in a deal valued at up to $1 billion, including potential milestone payments. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Eli Lilly’s portfolio in the pain management sector, with SiteOne’s Nav 1.8 inhibitor, STC-004, being a key asset.
In terms of analyst ratings, Erste Group downgraded Eli Lilly from a buy to a hold, citing concerns over future earnings projections. Meanwhile, UBS maintained a Buy rating on Eli Lilly, setting a price target of $1,050, and BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $900 price target following the SiteOne deal. These developments highlight the mixed sentiment among analysts regarding Eli Lilly’s future performance.
Eli Lilly’s recent first-quarter report indicated a revised earnings per share forecast for 2025, now projected to be between $20.2 and $21.7. Despite the downgrade from Erste Group, UBS’s continued support suggests confidence in the company’s long-term potential. Investors will be closely monitoring Eli Lilly’s progress in integrating SiteOne Therapeutics and advancing its drug pipeline.
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