TD Cowen maintains Sell rating on Roblox stock, $40 target

Published 21/05/2025, 15:26
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On Wednesday, TD Cowen reiterated its Sell rating and $40.00 price target for Roblox Corp . (NYSE:RBLX) shares, which currently trade at $82.75, near their 52-week high. According to InvestingPro data, the stock appears overvalued, having surged over 150% in the past year. The firm’s analyst highlighted concerns about the potential overestimation of the company’s Q2 performance based on engagement metrics. The analyst’s previous note suggested the possibility of manipulation in Roblox’s discovery algorithm and management awareness, a stance they have since revised.

The updated analysis suggests that while the engagement data remains relevant, the initial conclusion about algorithm manipulation was deemed unwarranted. Despite the correction, TD Cowen maintains its Sell rating on the stock, indicating skepticism about the company’s near-term growth prospects.

The analyst pointed out that if the market’s recent optimism about Roblox is tied to its engagement figures, there might be disappointment when Q2 results are released. While revenue grew 30% in the last twelve months, InvestingPro analysis reveals the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $880 million. They noted that year-over-year comparisons will become more challenging in Q3, and if Q2 bookings are not accelerating, the growth in the second half of the year could slow significantly.

Furthermore, the analyst provided a projection for Roblox’s Q2 results, estimating a 30% increase in bookings, a 55% rise in daily active users (DAUs), but a 15% decrease in average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU). This mix of statistics could present a challenging narrative for the company and its investors to interpret. For deeper insights into Roblox’s valuation and growth prospects, including 13 additional ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis, check out the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Roblox Corp. has seen a series of updates that are likely to interest investors. The company reported strong first-quarter performance with a 31% increase in revenue and a 26% rise in daily active users, prompting Macquarie to raise its price target for Roblox to $80 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Canaccord Genuity also increased its price target to $84, highlighting Roblox’s revenue growth and strategic enhancements. Meanwhile, Jefferies raised its price target to $70, maintaining a Hold rating, citing broad-based improvements across Roblox’s platform.

In addition, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) reiterated its Buy rating with a $78 target following Roblox’s launch of Rewarded Video Ads in partnership with Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which could significantly boost revenue and EBITDA by 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $80, maintaining a Neutral rating, and projected a compound annual growth rate of 22% for Roblox’s Bookings from 2024 to 2027. The partnership with Google is expected to enhance Roblox’s advertising capabilities, potentially generating an additional $150 million to $300 million in advertising revenue by 2026.

These developments reflect Roblox’s efforts to diversify its revenue streams and strengthen its monetization strategies. The company’s recent performance and strategic initiatives have led several analyst firms to adjust their financial outlooks, signaling confidence in Roblox’s growth trajectory despite potential market risks.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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