On Thursday, Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating and a $345.00 price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), following the release of the company's fourth-quarter vehicle delivery and production numbers. Tesla reported approximately 496,000 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2024, which represented a 7% increase from the previous quarter but only a 2% rise year-over-year.
Production figures showed a slight decline, with about 459,000 vehicles produced, marking a 2% decrease from the previous quarter and a 7% drop from the same period last year.
For the full year of 2024, Tesla's vehicle deliveries reached roughly 1.79 million, which was a 1% decrease compared to the previous year. The fourth-quarter delivery numbers fell short of consensus estimates, which ranged between approximately 500,000 and 510,000 vehicles, with Visible Alpha predicting 512,000, FactSet at 498,000, and Goldman Sachs' own estimate at 510,000. T
"Recall that in order for Tesla to have met its objective to grow vehicle deliveries in 2024, it would have required ~515k or more units in 4Q," the firm pointed out.
The shortfall in deliveries was attributed to weaker performance in Europe, where deliveries were down by double digits year-over-year in the fourth quarter. However, this was partially offset by stronger growth in China, which saw mid to high teens growth year-over-year, while U.S. deliveries experienced a modest decline. The lower-than-expected delivery numbers were particularly influenced by the S, X, and Cybertruck models.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that moving forward, the focus will be on several key areas: the potential acceleration of vehicle delivery volumes in 2025, non-GAAP gross margins in the automotive sector, advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, the Energy segment's performance (highlighting strong storage deployments in the quarter), and progress with the Optimus project.
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