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On Wednesday, UBS analyst Jay Sole adjusted the price target for Steven Madden (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SHOO) stock, lowering it to $22 from the previous target of $24, while continuing to hold a Neutral rating on the company’s shares. The revision was prompted by concerns over consumer spending in the fashion footwear sector and the potential impact of recent tariff announcements by the United States. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has declined over 54% in the past six months, though analysis suggests the company remains undervalued at current levels.
Sole’s report highlighted that channel checks indicate a subdued consumer spending environment for fashion footwear, which could lead Steven Madden to reconsider its full-year 2025 (FY25) earnings per share (EPS) guidance. The current EPS forecast by Steven Madden is in the range of $2.30 to $2.40, but the analyst suggests that the company might reduce this guidance by approximately $1.00 due to the new tariffs. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains strong fundamentals with a healthy current ratio of 2.16 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Despite the uncertainties, the report notes that investors seem to be anticipating such an outcome, resulting in a balanced view of the risks and potential rewards associated with the company’s stock. Additionally, Sole pointed out that the options market is predicting a significant price movement of +/- 7.0% around the event, which is notably higher than the historical average move of 3.9%. UBS concurs with the options market’s expectations of heightened volatility for Steven Madden’s stock. The company has demonstrated resilience with a consistent dividend payment history spanning 8 consecutive years and maintains a solid gross profit margin of 41%.
The analyst’s report also includes detailed scenario analyses concerning the impact of tariffs on Steven Madden’s financial outlook. While the exact adjustments to the company’s guidance are not yet known, the analysis presents different potential outcomes, suggesting that changes could be more or less significant than the estimated $1.00 reduction.
Investors and market watchers are now eyeing Steven Madden’s next move, as any updates to its FY25 EPS guidance could influence the company’s stock performance in the near term.
In other recent news, Steven Madden has been the focus of analyst revisions and market evaluations. Williams Trading downgraded Steven Madden from Hold to Sell, citing concerns over tariffs impacting margins and demand, and reduced its price target from $35.00 to $16.00. Telsey Advisory Group also adjusted its price target for Steven Madden, lowering it to $38.00 from $44.00, while maintaining a Market Perform rating. Telsey noted mixed performance in fiscal year 2024, highlighting increased promotions and reliance on private label products affecting gross margins, despite stronger sales. Jefferies followed suit by cutting Steven Madden’s price target to $36.00 from $46.00, maintaining a Hold rating. The analyst noted that while the company reported better-than-expected sales growth, its gross margin remains under pressure. The acquisition of Kurt Geiger is expected to positively impact earnings, but concerns over tariff exposure persist. Meanwhile, Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) was downgraded by Williams Trading from Buy to Hold, with a price target reduction to $17.00 from $30.00, amid broader industry challenges. Piper Sandler’s survey indicated shifts in teen fashion preferences, with UGG rising in popularity and Nike (NYSE:NKE) experiencing a decline in mindshare, especially among upper-income females.
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