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Investing.com - UBS downgraded Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX:VAU) from Buy to Neutral on Tuesday, while slightly lowering its price target to AUD0.72 from AUD0.75.
The rating change follows Vault Minerals’ release of three-year production guidance that fell below UBS’s previous estimates. The investment bank has trimmed its production forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 by an average of 7%.
UBS noted only minor impacts to FY26 all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and a marginal reduction to overall capital expenditure based on the new guidance.
The downgrade also reflects Vault Minerals’ recent stock outperformance compared to peers over the past two months, driven by rising gold prices and announcements regarding management succession and a share buyback program of up to 10%.
While UBS maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, approximately 20% above consensus, the combination of weaker production guidance and assumptions that Vault will slow its buyback program given recent share price performance has led to material earnings per share downgrades for fiscal years 2026-2028.
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