Wolfe Research cuts UnitedHealth Group target to $390, keeps outperform

Published 20/05/2025, 10:42
Wolfe Research cuts UnitedHealth Group target to $390, keeps outperform

On Tuesday, Wolfe Research announced a significant adjustment to the price target for UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) shares, reducing it from $501.00 to $390.00, while still maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading below its Fair Value, with analyst targets ranging from $308 to $626. The research firm’s analyst, Justin Lake, expressed confidence in UnitedHealth’s ability to improve margins in its Medicare Advantage segment, which is anticipated to contribute an additional $4.94 to earnings per share (EPS) compared to the 2025 estimate of $21.75.

Lake highlighted the past five weeks as an extraordinary period for UnitedHealth in terms of both operational performance and stock price movement. The stock has declined nearly 47% over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data, which also reveals the company maintains strong fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 13x and a healthy 2.66% dividend yield. Wolfe Research anticipates that it will take time for the company’s earnings and investor sentiment to begin to recover. Despite recent challenges, the firm remains optimistic about UnitedHealth’s potential for recovery, particularly within the Medicare Advantage segment.

The revised 2025 year-end price target of $390 is based on a 15x earnings multiple, representing a 30% discount to the S&P 500 index based on 2026 earnings estimates. This calculation suggests a 23% upside from current levels. Wolfe Research’s outlook assumes no improvement at OptumCare’s capitated physician group, with the expectation that enhanced coding and bids will be balanced by the final year of V28 phase-in.

The analyst also pointed to the performance of Optum Health as a critical factor influencing the future trajectory of UnitedHealth’s stock. Stability and improvement within this division are seen as key to the company’s overall success.

UnitedHealth Group, a diversified health and well-being company, is closely watched by investors for signs of progress in its various segments, including its extensive healthcare services arm, Optum. With an impressive revenue of $410 billion in the last twelve months and strong profitability metrics, the company maintains its position as a prominent player in the healthcare sector. Wolfe Research’s latest assessment reflects a cautiously optimistic view of the company’s ability to navigate current challenges and capitalize on its strategic initiatives in the near future. For deeper insights into UNH’s financial health and growth prospects, access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which offers exclusive analysis and 12 additional ProTips.

In other recent news, UnitedHealth Group has experienced significant developments affecting its financial outlook. The company recently adjusted its earnings and revenue expectations, with several analyst firms revising their price targets and ratings. Bernstein SocGen Group lowered its price target to $377, citing changes in executive leadership and a strategic shift in Medicare Advantage (MA) processes. Truist Securities also reduced its price target to $360, maintaining a Buy rating, due to increased care activity trends and utilization pressures in MA.

TD Cowen downgraded UnitedHealth’s stock from Buy to Hold, setting a new price target of $308, influenced by concerns about coding practices and potential legal scrutiny. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward, highlighting the impact of one-time accounting gains on the company’s financials. RBC Capital Markets, meanwhile, cut its price target to $355 while maintaining an Outperform rating, in response to cost trends and Department of Justice activity.

These adjustments reflect a broader trend among analysts reassessing UnitedHealth’s financial health amid executive changes and strategic shifts. The company has suspended its 2025 guidance, and analysts have expressed concerns over the quality and recurrence of earnings. Despite these challenges, some firms maintain a positive long-term view on UnitedHealth, noting potential recovery in its Medicare Advantage segment.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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