Bernstein adjusts copper prices forecast. Here’s the new target

Published 08/07/2025, 14:52

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts have raised their copper price forecasts for the second half of 2025, citing tight supply conditions and shifting inventory patterns linked to anticipated U.S. trade policy. 

In a note, the firm set its Q3 copper price estimate at $10,000 per tonne and its Q4 forecast at $9,700 per tonne.

“Copper has made headlines as it surges above $10,000/t while forward curves has turned to deep backwardation, signaling very tight supply,” Bernstein wrote. 

The analysts noted that “the expectation that Trump would introduce tariffs on copper has redirected copper cargoes to the U.S.,” adding that “inventories are shifting to US warehouses.”

This redirection of cargoes is expected to persist “until the tariffs are officially enacted, which could happen at any time (deadline is mid-November),” the report said.

Bernstein reiterated its Outperform ratings on key copper-exposed stocks, including Antofagasta (LON:ANTO), Glencore (OTC:GLNCY), and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), “as copper themes.”

The report also provided commentary on broader metals markets, with gold reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce in April. 

“Gold ran strongly to record levels and is apparently pulling silver and platinum along for the ride,” Bernstein said. The firm raised its 2H25 and long-term gold price targets to $3,200/oz and $3,000/oz, respectively. 

Silver, palladium, and platinum rose 8%, 15%, and 38% in the second quarter, though Bernstein suggested platinum’s rally was likely “driven by speculation, rather than strong fundamental factors.”

While copper remains the focus, the firm also flagged potential earnings headwinds from currency effects, warning that “USD profound strength in Q2… could present earnings headwind, especially for European mines’ owners.”

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