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Investing.com - Bernstein forecasts copper prices to remain elevated around $10,000 per ton as the industry faces significant production challenges, according to a research note released Monday.
The investment firm reports that copper production has fallen below consensus estimates for three consecutive years, with 2025 potentially continuing this trend as approximately one million tonnes of production delays have already been announced. While copper demand consistently grows at nearly 3% CAGR (about one million tonnes annually), supply growth has lagged at 2.5% since 2022.
Bernstein identifies eight common challenges affecting copper mining operations, categorizing them as either structural or cyclical issues. Structural challenges include ore hardness, lower grades, increasing mineralization depth, seismic activity, and regulatory hurdles, while cyclical problems encompass geopolitical risks, labor strikes, and water availability constraints.
The firm’s analysis of production outlook revisions across major miners and individual mine operations reveals that negative revisions typically exceed positive ones in magnitude. Bernstein argues that consensus estimates remain "overly optimistic" because they generally follow company production guidance derived from mine plans that fail to adequately account for these challenges.
These ongoing supply constraints reinforce Bernstein’s bullish long-term outlook on copper, with the firm concluding that the metal’s price around $10,000 per ton represents "the new normal" as the market balances persistent demand growth against constrained supply.
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