Oil prices climb over 1% after OPEC+ reaffirms pause; supply risks in focus

Published 01/12/2025, 03:30
© Reuters

Investing.com-- Oil prices rose more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, supported by OPEC+’s reaffirmation to hold output steady during the first quarter, and by renewed supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.

As of 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in February rose 1.2% to $63.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also jumped 1.2% to $59.27 per barrel.

OPEC+ reiterates pause in output hike

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reiterated its plan to pause production increases through the first quarter of next year, maintaining voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day.

The group signalled a cautious approach as it confronts uneven demand trends and what it sees as a potential oversupply in 2026.

The cartel also agreed on a mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum production capacities between January and September 2026, laying the groundwork for setting baseline quotas for 2027.

"This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines," ING analysts said in a note.

Traders assess supply risks

Traders also weighed fresh supply risks tied to political rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Venezuela. Trump said he’s considering closing the airspace over the nation.

"This escalation between the US and Venezuela has the US carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby," ING analysts said.

"Venezuela exports around 800k b/d, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk."

Additional support for crude came from a series of attacks over the weekend on Russian energy infrastructure, which disrupted export operations.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major conduit for Kazakh and Russian crude shipments through the Black Sea, said it had suspended loadings after a naval drone strike caused significant damage to a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

"Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports," ING analysts added.

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