Asia FX moves little with focus on US-China trade, dollar steadies ahead of CPI
Investing.com - Crude prices have climbed to one-month highs on heightening geopolitical risks and supply concerns, but Citigroup (NYSE:C) sees the likelihood of a lower trading range through most of 2025.
At 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT), the benchmark Brent contract slipped 0.2% lower to $72.93 per barrel, after having risen back to levels around $74 a barrel on heightened geopolitical risks of U.S. policies that could hit Venezuela and Iran’s oil exports.
This reverses the oil sell-off in early March that took prices down to $69 a barrel, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, confirmed it would start unwinding production cuts in April, and U.S. tariff risks picked up.
Ahead of the options expiry, there have been decent volumes around the $75/bbl-strike, analysts at Citi said, in a note dated March 27.
“Yet, there appears to be little appetite to be long on these levels, and this upswing may just provide funds with a better opportunity to initiate new shorts,” the bank added.
Broader market conviction remains for range-bound oil this year, progressively drifting lower, with volatility compressing further along the way. Timespreads are still supported by still-low observable inventory levels, especially at main storage hubs, such as Cushing, but these should keep rebuilding even at hubs, with any Russia-Ukraine de-escalation seeing oil-on-water move back on-land.
Additionally, the latest U.S. “secondary tariffs” on buyers of Venezuelan oil could hit up to 0.5-0.7-mb/d of exports but can be much less. April could also bring renewed selling pressure as U.S. tariffs gain clarity, and OPEC+ begins ramping up output; US-Russia-Ukraine dealmaking continues apace.
Meanwhile, US dealmaking on Iran and Venezuela could be another case of “escalate to de-escalate”, with supply risks reversing later, as the Trump administration remains focused on getting oil prices lower.
“We recommend layering in downside exposure/insurance, as we expect the prior $70-$90 price range to move down to $60-$75 through 2025,” Citi added.