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Investing.com -- The US’s export of LNG has surged with new projects come online, but it remains unclear whether China which was once seen as a key growth market will be willing to take more of the fuel.
More than 100mn tonnes per annum of new LNG capacity is due to start up globally within the next year, according to Bernstein that includes major US developments such as Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Plaquemines Phase II.
This flood of new supply comes just as global LNG demand is expected to rise modestly by 5% in 2025. But China, the world’s second-largest LNG importer, is showing signs of cooling.
Chinese LNG imports have fallen 12% so far this year, dragged down by sluggish gas demand growth, greater domestic production and increased pipeline flows from Russia.
Imports are forecast to fall to 70mn tonnes this year, which is about 9% decline.
Whereas Europe’s LNG imports rose 5 per cent in the first half of the year, as countries rebuild gas stocks ahead of winter and reduce reliance on Russian pipeline gas.
European storage levels remain on track to reach 80–90 per cent capacity by the heating season.
The result is a market that could soon be oversupplied. LNG spot prices are currently around $12 per million, British thermal units could fall to $9 next year and as low as $7 in 2027, or even lower if demand fails to keep pace.
Chinese LNG demand is expected to recover, rising to 100mn tonnes by 2030. But for now, producers may face weaker prices and tougher competition to secure buyers.