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On Friday, Evercore ISI raised its rating for Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) stock, moving from an "In Line" to an "Outperform" stance, accompanied by a significant increase in the price target to $205 from the previous $165. This adjustment reflects a positive outlook on the company's future earnings and its potential for sales growth, particularly through its Olive Garden chain, which accounts for 45% of its sales.
The upgrade is based on Evercore ISI's growing confidence in Darden's ability to drive incremental sales at Olive Garden. The firm anticipates that the restaurant group will adopt a more aggressive marketing strategy, including price point advertising and limited-time offers, which are expected to roll out in the second half of the year. Additionally, the introduction of Uber (NYSE:UBER) Eats as a delivery option is projected to contribute a 3 percentage point increase to same-store sales by fiscal year 2026, with a mid-single-digit exit rate.
Evercore ISI's analysis suggests that Darden Restaurants is poised to achieve profitable sales growth, which will be supported by favorable conditions such as benign commodity inflation and improved labor productivity. This financial health is expected to lead to an enhanced EBITDA margin over the next 12 months.
The firm also expressed confidence in LongHorn Steakhouse, which represents 25% of Darden's sales, noting its continued market share gains. As a result of these factors, Evercore ISI has raised its fiscal year 2026 consolidated same-store sales estimate from a 1.5% increase to 3% and adjusted the earnings per share forecast from $10.26 to $10.78. This represents a 14% year-over-year growth, which is above the consensus estimate of $10.45.
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