S&P 500 may face selling pressure as systematic funds reach full exposure

Published 05/08/2025, 17:16
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Systematic funds are expected to reach full exposure to U.S. equities by September, potentially leading to selling pressure as markets become more vulnerable to downside shocks, according to Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities. 

In a note to clients on Tuesday, Rubner, who serves as the firm’s head of equity and equity derivatives strategy, explained that these funds, which base their exposure decisions on factors like volatility or momentum, have been increasing their positions in U.S. stocks as indexes like the S&P 500 continue to rebound from April lows.

However, Rubner warned that these systematic investors will exhaust their buying capacity by the end of August, creating a potential risk for market stability.

Citadel Securities has identified medium-term "flip" thresholds that would trigger commodity trading advisers (CTAs) to begin selling S&P 500 futures. While these levels remain below the current index value, the gap has narrowed over the past week due to increased market volatility. According to Citadel’s global macro strategy team, the current flip level for the S&P 500 sits at 6,166, compared to the index’s current value of approximately 6,300.

The firm also noted that buying activity from volatility-control funds may start to diminish. These particular funds purchase equities when realized volatility decreases and sell when market fluctuations intensify.

Rubner’s comments were first reported by Bloomberg News. 

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