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On Wednesday, RBC Capital raised its price target for United Utilities (OTC:UUGRY) Group (UU:LN) (OTC: UUGRY) to GBP 11.50, up from the previous GBP 10.50, while upgrading the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform.
The firm's analyst anticipates that United Utilities will benefit from the upcoming final determination in December, expecting the company to be a strong beneficiary of higher allowed total expenditure (totex).
The analyst notes that United Utilities was impacted by a lower business plan categorization and a significant reduction in totex at the Draft Determination (DD) stage when compared to its listed peers.
Despite these setbacks, RBC Capital foresees an opportunity for the company to catch up materially, given the potential softening of Outcome Delivery Incentives (ODI) benchmarks and an increased base return in the sector.
United Utilities is predicted to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in nominal Regulatory Capital Value (RCV) of approximately 7% from FY25 to FY30, an improvement from the 4-5% determined by the Water Services Regulation Authority (Ofwat) at the DD.
The company's strong balance sheet is highlighted as a key factor that will provide the flexibility needed to finance substantial investment throughout Asset Management Plan 8 (AMP8) while staying within its 55-65% net debt/RCV gearing target. Net debt/RCV is forecasted to be around 60% for FY25, with a peak of about 65% during AMP8.
The UK water sector is described as entering a capital expenditure (capex) super cycle, with expectations of multiple periods of strong RCV growth. In this context, United Utilities is seen as well positioned for the upcoming AMP8 cycle, despite ongoing discussions about equity as companies invest for value accretive growth.
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